國際動能策略與景氣循環風險：由季節性型態觀察之

International Momentum Strategies and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Seasonal Patterns

陳獻儀(Hsien-Yi Chen) ； 胡銘顯(Ming-Shien Hu)

《臺大管理論叢》 22卷2期 (2012/06) Pp. 277-308

https://doi.org/10.6226/2012.(22-2).10

摘要

基於近來國際金融市場上以國家股市指數為標的之投資商品日益盛行，本文以較近期的資料探討國際指數動能投資組合策略的獲利性。另一方面，對於動能交易策略獲利性的成因，許多文獻均指出景氣循環因素可能是其中一項重要影響因子，在檢視其對動能策略影響力時，本文認為透過動能投資組合利潤的季節型態觀察，可能要比以往文獻慣用的總體經濟代理變數，更為直接明確。本文採用39個國家的股價指數報酬為實證樣本，研究期間涵蓋1992年7月至2008年10月止，實證結果顯示，國際動能策略在已開發與新興市場國家都展現出顯著的動能利潤。除此之外，進一步觀察國際動能利潤之季節性表現後，本文並未發現明確且一致性的季節性型態，表示景氣循環因素對於國際指數動能交易策略獲利性，可能較不具主宰性。

關鍵字

國際動能策略 ； 季節性效應 ； 景氣循環

並列摘要

Recent years have witnessed phenomenal growth in the number and size of index-based financial products in international financial markets. This paper employs more recent data to examine the profitability of index-based international momentum strategies. Several studies have documented that business cycles are a possible explanation for price momentum. An important difference between momentum profiting from seasonal patterns and macroeconomic variables was that the former examined the influence of business cycle risk as more direct and explicit. Using stock market index data from 39 markets between July 1992 and October 2008, we found significant profitability of international momentum trading strategies in developed markets and emerging markets. Furthermore, we had not found an obvious and consistent seasonal pattern in international momentum profit. Business cycle seemed to not play a substantial role in index-based international momentum strategies.

並列關鍵字

international momentum strategies ； seasonal effects ； business cycle

參考文獻

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