台灣銀行業在兩次金融改革期間的競爭與存、貸戶福利的變化

The Impact of Financial Reforms on Competition and Consumer Welfare in the Taiwan Banking Industry

黃景沂(Ching-I Huang) ； 莊晋祥(Ching-Hsiang Chuang)

《經濟論文叢刊》 40卷4期 (2012/12) Pp. 421-460

https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2012.404.1

摘要

本文分析台灣在2002年到2008年之間實施兩次金融改革在銀行業造成的政策效果。第一次金改的目標在於提升資本適足率與降低逾放比，第二次金改則是鼓勵銀行進行合併。本研究的重點在於探究金改政策對於產業競爭程度與存、貸款戶福利水準的影響。藉由估計存款與放款需求模型得出銀行屬性對於存、貸款戶效用的影響,我們發現提升資本適足率能提升存、貸款戶的效用，但降低逾放比則沒有顯著影響。估計出來的利率彈性顯示在實施這兩次金改的期間，市場競爭程度大致趨緩，而存款與貸款消費者的福利水準都下降。至於金改政策本身造成的直接效果則可透過反事實分析（counterfactual experiments）的方式來排除其它因素的影響，我們發現第一次金改的政策對競爭程度的影響很小,但同時提升了存款與放款消費者的福利。第二次金改的直接效果則降低了市場競爭程度，雖然提高了存款者福利但卻減低了放款者的福利。

關鍵字

需求估計 ； 消費者福利 ； 異質產品 ； 銀行業

並列摘要

This paper analyzes the effects of the two waves of financial reforms implemented between 2002 and 2008 in the Taiwan banking industry. The first financial reform aimed to raise capital adequacy ratios and reduce nonperforming loans. The second financial reform encouraged banks to merge. We investigate the impact of the reforms on market competition and consumers' welfare. Using a structural demand model for saving and borrowing in a differentiated market, we find that a bank's capital adequacy rate has a positive impact on the utility of both savers and borrowers. Contrarily, the ratio of non-performing loans has no significant effect. During these reform periods, market competition tended to decline while consumers' welfare dropped for both savers and borrowers. Nonetheless, when we use counterfactual experiments to isolate the direct effect of reform policies from other factors, we find that the first reform had almost no effect on market competition while raising both savers' and borrowers' welfare. On the other hand, the second reform reduced market competition, increased savers' welfare, but decreased borrowers' welfare.

並列關鍵字

demand estimation ； consumer welfare ； heterogeneous products ； banking

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