當前北京對台策略剖析

Analysis of Beijing's Contemporary Policy toward Taiwan

陳明通(Ming-Tong Chen)

《東吳政治學報》 27卷2期 (2009/06) Pp. 127-202

https://doi.org/10.6418/SJPS.200906.0127

摘要

本論文從問題的本質出發，探討北京在馬政府時期的對台政策，確認「解決臺灣問題，完成祖國統一大業」，是北京對台策略所要達成一貫不變的戰略目標，不會因為民進黨或國民黨執政而有任何的差別。為了達成此一戰略目標，胡錦濤有別於江澤民，在2005年建構了「一法兩公報」（反分裂國家法、連胡公報、宋胡公報）的對台戰略框架，此一戰略框架可以說是胡錦濤對台種種作為的主要依憑，不僅主導了當前的對台政策，也將持續到未來，直到胡的任期結束，目前的重點則在迫使馬政府落實「連胡公報」中的「五項共同願景」。 本論文進一步分析，北京當局對馬政府上台初期經過一段「聽其言、觀其行」的階段，在佈署完成「圍馬統一戰線」後，即積極回應馬政府有關兩岸經貿議題的協商，包括前政府已完成技術協商的陸客來台觀光、客貨包機及海運直航議題，但在落實這些協商結論時則打了一些折扣，主要是馬總統所提出的「不統、不獨、不武」三不政策，北京不盡滿意，特別是「不統」的主張，直接挑戰北京對台的戰略目標。因此2008年底，胡錦濤正式提出「胡六點」，要馬總統「恪守一個中國」，要求「兩岸在事關維護一個中國框架這一原則問題上形成共同認知和一致立場，就有了構築政治互信的基石，什麼事情都好商量。」就統一問題直接向馬總統叫陣，並直指這是雙方的「互信基礎」。 對於胡錦濤促統的叫陣，本論文最後假設了馬政府回應的三種場景。一是完全依循北京所設定的對台政策框架；二是完全拒絕，甚至不惜翻臉，即使造成兩岸關係倒退亦無所謂；三是並非完全配合對北京所設定的對台政策框架，馬仍有自己的想法和堅持。第三種場景比較符合目前馬政府的回應策略，但是這種場景並不會持續太久，北京將努力將馬政府推往第一個場景，馬又不敢翻臉走向第二場景，結果若不是北京勝利，就是造成兩岸關係的放緩甚至出現僵局，但目前看來北京的贏面似乎愈來愈大。

關鍵字

一個中國原則 ； 一法兩公報 ； 五項共同願景 ； 胡六點 ； 北京對台策略

並列摘要

This paper will explores China's cross strait policy toward the Ma Ying-jeou administration to confirm the agenda 'to solve the Taiwan issue and accomplish the great cause of motherland unification' as remaining constant regardless if the Democratic Progressive Party or the Kuomintang is in power. Unlike his predecesor Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao set up a framework of 'one law and two communiqués' (Anti-separation law, Lian-Hu communiqué, and Song-Hu communiqué) in 2005 to reach this strategic objective. This framework will continue guiding present China's Taiwan policy until the end of Hu's term. The key to this framework is to force the Ma administration to implement the 'five points of the common vision' in the Lian-Hu communiqué.
This paper further analyzes that after a short period of observing the Ma administration and finishing the deployment of a united front against Ma Ying-jeou, the Beijing authorities responded positively to bilateral negotiation of economic and trade issues, including mainland tourists' visit to Taiwan, cargo and passenger charter flights, and direct marine transportation. Still, implementation of these negotiations still fell short due to Ma's three principles of 'no unification, no independence and no use of force.' The 'no unification' principle especially challenged Beijing's strategic objective.
Therefore, at the end of 2008, Hu Jintao formally proposed the 'six points' of Taiwan policy, demanding President Ma to abide by the 'one China', and stating that 'there is a foundation of constructing political mutual trust for both sides to negotiate anything so long as two sides across the Taiwan Strait form a consensus and identical position with respect to safeguarding the principle of the one China framework. In other words, on the issue of reunification, China draws the line for President Ma, stating that this will serve as the basis of mutual trust for both.
With respect to that Hu Jintao urged for reunification, this paper finally assumes three scenarios that the Ma administration may react. First, Taipei completely follows the framework of Taiwan policy set up by Beijing. Second, Taipei outright refuses Beijing's framework, even turning hostile against China, which may cause the regression of cross-Straits relations. Third, Taipei does not entirely follow the framework set up by Beijing, with some reservations of Ma's own ideas and insistence in some circumstances. The third scenario relatively accords with the tactics of the Ma administration at present, but this is not sustainable in the long term. Beijing will make great efforts to push the Ma administration to realize the first scenario. However, Ma does not dare to turn hostile suddenly and move towards the second scenario. As a result, the final outcome will be either that Beijing will win or that the progress in cross-Strait relations will slow down or even come to a halt. Nevertheless, based on the current development, the chance that Beijing will win the game seems greater and greater.

並列關鍵字

the one-China principle ； one law and two communiqués ； five points of the common vision ； Hu's six points ； Beijing's strategy toward Taiwan

參考文獻

蕭萬長(2005)。兩岸共同市場的理念與實踐。中國評論。92，6-9。

Remarks at Asia Society Annual Dinner

Times Online

Press Briefing by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley on the President's Trip to the NATO Summit

Chinese, U.S. Presidents Hold Telephone Talks on Taiwan, Tibet