產業政策與連鎖效果：台灣塑膠原料業發展的因素

Industrial Policy and Ladder-Climbing: A Study of Taiwan's Plastic-material Industry

瞿宛文(Wan-Wen Chu) ； 黃秋燕(Chiu-Yen Huang)

《台灣社會研究季刊》 32期 (1998/12) Pp. 83-124

https://doi.org/10.29816/TARQSS.199812.0003

摘要

本文探討了台灣石化業的主要部門塑膠原料業的成長過程以及成長的原因，也探究了上游石化基本原料業與下游塑膠製品業對其成長的影響。
這產業中除了PVC發展較早外，其他則都是在公營企業間始經營上游的輕油裂解廠之同時隨著設廠生產，是典型的向前連鎖效應，而推動者則為國家。
這六個產業從開始到1986年爲止，都大致維持相當的成長率，之後則各業有顯著不同的表現。在早期下游的需求對於各産業而言，都是主要的成長動力，同時下游帶動作用越大的産業，其成長率就越快，顯現了一種動態的雪球效果。同時，技術變革、産業的成長潛能與市場競爭程度之間也呈現動態的相關性，並影響著産業的成長。
政策因素對這産業有很深的影響，除了以公營企業經營上游並在啓始階段領導推動之外，政府一直採用各種關稅與非關稅的保護措施來扶植這産業，直到1986年開始貿易自由化爲止。同時這也是台灣發展的一個典型，即出口導向政策常配合著中上游的進口替代，顯示這兩種政策並非是相互排斥的選擇。

關鍵字

成長因素 ； 逆向整合 ； 產業政策 ； 新興工業化國家 ； 帶動作用

並列摘要

This paper explores the history and causes of growth of Taiwan's plastic-material industry, which lies vertically between the upstream basic petrochemicals and the downstream plastic product sectors. The study focuses on the six common plastics, PVC, LDPE, HDPE, PP, PS, and ABS, which comprise over 80% of the sector. Almost all of them were established along with the state-run upstream naphtha-cracking plants. That is, forward linkage effects were effective.
All grew steadily until liberalization in 1986. For those sectors, whose inputs cannot be easily transported, their growth began to be restricted since the late 1980s when local protest postponed the construction of the fifth and sixth cracker. For other sectors their growth has been unhampered. PS and ABS sectors grew rapidly by expanding their exports, especially to the mainland, in the later period.
The downstream's demand has been the engine of growth for all six sectors. The backward linkage effects, however, are stronger in those sectors that did not face supply restriction and those that grew faster. The greater the downstream's growth rate, the better its prospects, the greater the linkage effects and the faster the midstream's growth. Market structure also matters. Moreover, industrial policy has been instrumental in bringing about industrial upgrading. That is, ladder-climbing does not come automatically for an NIC.

並列關鍵字

industrial policy ； linkage effects ； causes of growth ； NICs

參考文獻

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