2001年台灣潤滑油市場回顧與展望

An Overview of Taiwan Lube Market in 2001 and its Beyond

王四端(Shie-Duan Wang) ； 林榮盛(Jung-Sheng Lin)

《石油季刊》 39卷1期 (2003/03) Pp. 101-108

https://doi.org/10.30128/JP.200303.0009

摘要

2001年對台灣絕大多數潤滑油業者而言，是一個艱苦慘澹的－年。經濟不景氣再加美國911事件衝擊，台灣市場總需求估計約較上一年衰退超過一成，今年（2002）需求可望小幅回升。台灣市場2001年車輛與工業（含製程）用油類需求比例約為2/3。預估至2005年因台灣產業結構變遷、高耗潤滑油產業外移，與車輛總數增加等因素影響，車輛／工業（含製程）用油需求比例約轉變為1/1.2。整體而言，未來台灣潤滑油市場將是一個微幅成長之成熟飽和市場，且有眾多品牌競爭之完全自由開放市場。然品牌雖多，但7成左右市場為不到10個品牌所占有，其餘眾多品牌只能分享剩餘約3成市場。工業用油品牌“集中度”又較車輛用油為高，這種少數強者益強之趨勢，未來亦將持續擴大。
展望未來市場需求變化，除深受經濟與產業發展驅動因素影響外，尚有許多有深遠影響之非經濟因素，如：加入世貿組織（關稅與市場開放）、兩岸關係與法規、新環保標準或法規、新機油性能規格（如API CI，SM等）、網路料技與電子商務及國營事業民營化等，這些因素於本文中皆有探討。

關鍵字

台灣 ； 潤滑油 ； 市場 ； 車輛用油 ； 工業用油 ； 品牌

並列摘要

For the Taiwan lubricant industry, year 2001 is full of hardship; global economic recession, 911 terrorist-attack aftermath, and so on. Taiwan lube market demands in 2001, compared to those of the last year, dropped by more than 10%, but expected to increase a little this year. In 2001, the ratio of Taiwan auto lube demands to industry lube (process oils included) demands are about 2:3. This ratio will gradually become larger to 1:1.2 till 2005 by our estimation due to Taiwan industrial structure change, high-lube-consuming industry move out, and increment of total vehicle numbers. Generally, future Taiwan lube market is a mature, though may have a very small-scale expansion, with hundreds of brands competing intensively. Although there are many different brands in local market, only less than 10 major lube brands account for about 70% market shares, other brands share the rest of market. This “brand concentration” phenomenon is more noticeable in industrial lube market, and this trend is supposed to become even more significant in future.
The outlook for Taiwan lube market demand change is tightly related to the Taiwan (global) economic growth and industry development. Besides, effects of some non-economic factors, such as joining the WTO (tariff, open market, etc.), relationship and regulations across (Taiwan) strait, new EPA standards or regulations, new lube performance specifications (API CI, SM, ...), internet technology and e commerce, and state-owned company privatization, are also discussed in this article.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan ； Lubricant ； Market ； Automotive ； Industry ； Brand