我國「獨立選民」的發展與變遷﹙1989~1999﹚

The Development and Changing Situation of Independent Voters in Taiwan from 1989 through 1999

莊天憐(Tien-Lien Chuang)

《選舉研究》 8卷1期 (2001/05) Pp. 71-115

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.2001.08.01.71-115

摘要

目前國內兩個主要的政黨，皆將民意調查作爲决定政黨提名的正式機制。國内政黨在提名候選人時引進民意調查，其主要的理由有二:一是試圖縮短黨意與民意的落差，以期能提名更適當的候選人而在選戰中獲勝；二是欲藉此消弭黨內初選時賄選、買票的風氣，以及「人頭黨員」、「口袋黨員」對初選所可能造成的扭曲。本文以1998年民進黨立委提名黨内初選所首度正式採行的民意調查進行個案研究。研究結果發現，民意調查並不一定能達成上述的目的，甚至初選的成績與選舉的結果之間可能還會產生重大的落差。

關鍵字

獨立選民 ； 政黨認同 ； 政治涉入 ； 接觸媒體程度 ； 政治知識 ； 政治信任感 ； 民主價值觀 ； 候選人形象 ； 政黨形象 ； 政治議題 ； 投票行爲

並列摘要

Two major parties in Taiwan,KMT and DPP,have implementedpublic opinion survey as the formal mechanism for their candidate selections.The employment of public opinion survey in the process of candidate selection is based on two hypotheses:(1)the usage of opinion surveymay narrow down the gap between the”party will”and the”public opinion”,(2)the usage of opinion survey may reduce the influence of”nominalparty members”.This paper examines the candidate selection process ofDPP in 1998 Legislative Yuan Election,and demonstrates that none ofthe hypotheses above are true.Moreover,when the public opinion surveywas applied for the candidate selection,the most important function ofthe political party will be shrunk.

並列關鍵字

Independent Voters ； Party Identification ； Political Involvement ； The Degree of Media Exposion ； Political Knowledge ； Political Trust ； The Perspection of the Value of Democracy ； Candidate Image ； Party Image ； Pol

參考文獻

Abramson, P. R.(1983).Political attitudes in America: Formation and Change.San Francisco:W. H. Freeman.

Abramson, Paul R.(1979).Developing Party Identification: A Further Examination of Life-Cycle, Generational, and Period Effects.American Journal of Political Science.23(7)

Abramson, Paul R., Ostrom, Jr. Charles W.(1991).Macropartisanship: An Empirical Reassessment.American Political Science Review.85

Allsop, D., Weisberg, H. F.(1988).Measuring Change in Party Identification in an Election Campaign.American Journal of Political Science.32(2)

Asher, Herbert B.(1992).Presidential Elections and American Politics: Voter, Candidates, and Campaigns Since 1952.California:Brooks/ Cole Publishing Company.