台灣選舉與民主化調查固定樣本(TEDS panel)之代表性探討

陳光輝; 劉從葦

doi:10.6612/tjes.2006.13.02.75-116

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DOI： 10.6612/tjes

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台灣選舉與民主化調查固定樣本(TEDS panel)之代表性探討

The Examination of Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study Panel Data

陳光輝(Kuang-Hui Chen) ；劉從葦(Tsung-Wei Liu)

選舉研究； 13卷2期 (2006 / 11 / 01) ， P75 - 116

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6612/tjes.2006.13.02.75-116

台灣選舉與民主化調查；固定樣本連續訪談；樣本流失；訪問效應； TEDS ； panel study ； panel attrition ； panel effect

Abstract │ Reference (32) │ Times Cited (4) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

TEDS conducted two waves of panel studies. These panel data can be used to describe the dynamics of Taiwanese voters and to develop related causal models. However, because of panel attrition and panel effect, there may be problems of internal and external validity. The examination of panel data shows that the panel attrition did not occur randomly. There are significant differences between those respondents who participated in the second interview and those who dropped out in terms of demographic characteristics, but no significant difference was found in terms of political attitudes.
Both TEDS 2003 and 2004P were composed of panel samples and independent samples. Panel samples are those respondents who were interviewed in TEDS 2001 and independent samples are those respondents who were never interviewed before. To be interviewed by academic research staff is a special experience, so the respondents may be intrigued to access more political information and become more willing to participate in political activities afterwards. Therefore, the three TEDS surveys could be treated as a quasi-experiment. While the panel samples is treatment group, the independent samples is control group, and the interview is the treatment. This quasi-experiment demonstrates that panel effect did change the respondents' political attitudes and increase their political participation. To sum up the consequences of panel attrition and panel effect, TEDS panel data are biased. Researchers who analyze this data set should be attentive to the issue of biased sample and think about the methods to correct the bias before drawing conclusions or making inferences.

Reference ( 32 ) 〈TOP〉

(2003)。原始樣本、替代樣本、與追蹤樣本的比較：『2001年台灣選舉與民主化調查研究』訪問失敗問題的探討。選舉研究，37-57。
連結：
Liu, Tsung-Wei,Kuang-Hui Chen(2005).Is Weighting A Routine or Something that Needs to be Justified?.Journal of Electoral Studies.
連結：
王鼎銘、蘇俊賦、黃紀、郭銘峰(2004)。日本自民黨之選票穩定度研究。選舉研究，11(2)，81-109。
連結：
陳陸輝(1999)。『固定樣本連續訪談法』(panel studies)樣本流失問題的探討」。選舉研究，6(1)，175-206。
連結：
黃紀(2005)。投票穩定與變遷之分析方法二定群類別資料之馬可夫鍊模型。選舉研究，12(1)，1-38。
連結：

Times Cited ( 4 ) 〈TOP〉

Altmetrics

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