非核家園的民衆意向：網路輿論的大數據分析

Public Orientation on the Nuclear-free Homeland Issue: A Big-Data Analysis of Online Comments

殷志偉(Chee Wei Ying) ； 劉正(Jeng Liu)

《選舉研究》 27卷2期 (2020/11) Pp. 49-92

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.202011_27(2).0002

摘要

2018年11月，以核養綠公投通過，否決2025非核家園政策。作者好奇人民做能源抉擇時，是只考量不同能源利弊嗎，或可能也受政治情緒影響？本研究先做網路輿論分析，再把結果跟民調比較，以試檢驗「越不認同民進黨和蔡英文，越不認同非核家園」的正向關係是否存在。網路輿論分析結果顯示，比較2016年跟2018年，蔡英文、民進黨和非核家園的網路負面情緒輿論皆增，三者呈正向關係。此結果基本跟民調相符，只是變化幅度沒民調來得高，除了有顯著提升的非核家園議題。分析結果可支持「越不認同民進黨和蔡英文，越不認同非核家園」的推論。至少在部分程度上，此現象可能導因自政治情緒的影響－大眾把對蔡英文和民進黨的不滿，擴散到跟民進黨相關事物身上，如民進黨力推的非核家園政策。本研究透過網路輿論分析和統計檢定，發現在負面情緒輿論方面，比起蔡英文議題，民進黨議題對非核家園議題有更大影響力，反之亦然。換言之，民進黨議題負面情緒輿論的增加，將可能提升非核家園議題的負面情緒輿論。

關鍵字

蔡英文 ； 民進黨 ； 以核養綠 ； 政治情緒

並列摘要

In November 2018, a nuclear-free homeland issue in Taiwan was rejected by voters in a nuclear referendum. A question thus arises: When voters are making a choice over a type of energy source, do they consider only the pros and cons of the issue, or do political emotions underlie their decision? Our study aims to answer this through a big-data analysis. Compared to 2016, we find that negative online comments concerning Tsai Ing-wen, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and a nuclear-free homeland increased during 2018, basically matching various polls with a relatively small amplitude of variation. The inference of ＂when the public is more dissatisfied with Tsai and the DPP administration, they become more opposed to a nuclear-free homeland issue＂ supports this finding. One potential reason could, in part, be the influence of political emotions. Dissatisfaction toward Tsai and the DPP administration by the public appears to have extended to DPP-related issues such as the nuclear-free homeland issue. In terms of negative online comments, compared with the topic of Tsai, the topic of the DPP greatly influences the topic of a nuclear-free homeland and vice versa. In others words, negative online comments of a nuclear-free homeland are more likely to increase if negative online comments of the DPP increase.

並列關鍵字

Tsai Ing-wen ； Democratic Progressive Party ； go green with nuclear ； political emotion

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