台灣地方財政的政治景氣循環分析：固定效果與隨機效果模型的估算比較

王鼎銘; 詹富堯

doi:10.6683/TPSR.200612.10(2).63-100

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P63 - 100

Social Sciences > Politics

DOI： 10.6683/TPSR

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台灣地方財政的政治景氣循環分析：固定效果與隨機效果模型的估算比較

Political Business Cycles in Taiwan Local Fiscal Budget: An Estimation and Comparison between Fixed Effect and Random Effect Models

王鼎銘(Ding-Ming Wang) ；詹富堯(Fu-Yao Chan)

台灣政治學刊； 10卷2期 (2006 / 12 / 01) ， P63 - 100

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6683/TPSR.200612.10(2).63-100

政治景氣循環理論；地方政府預算；固定效果模型；隨機效果模型； political business cycle ； local government finance ； fixed effect model ； random effect model

Abstract │ Reference (53) │ Times Cited (23) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

The incumbents in a democracy tend to manipulate the economy by adopting expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate short-run expansion during electoral periods. By doing so, the macroeconomic performance is affected by the election and it is so called the political business cycle. In order to test whether policy instruments are affected by the election or not, this paper focuses on the electoral and partisan cycles in local budgets in Taiwan Province between 1988 and 2003. More specifically, we try to explore the scenario of political business cycle at local governments.
The result shows that local governments' annual budgets do expand during the electoral years, which is corresponding to the theory of opportunistic political business cycle. On the other hand, we do not find the evidence to support the partisan political business cycle theory, since different incumbent parties have similar decision making for their budget during elections. Furthermore, we find a significant lag impact on the current budget setting. Finally, the empirical result reveals that local governments' budgets and expenditures expand during James Soong as a Chairman and Governor of Taiwan Provincial Government.

Reference ( 53 ) 〈TOP〉

王鼎銘(2003)。政策認同下的投票效用與選擇：空間投票理論在不同選舉制度間的比較。選舉研究，10(1)，171-206。
連結：
吳重禮、黃紀、張壹智(2003)。台灣地區分立政府與一致政府之研究：以1986年至2001年地方府會關係爲例。人文及社會科學集刊，15(1)，145-184。
連結：
Alesina, Alberto.(1987).Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game.Quarterly Journal of Economics,101,651-678.
Alesina, Alberto.(1988).Macroeconomics and Politics.NBER Macroeconomics Annual,3,13-52.
Alesina, Alberto,Nouriel Roubini.(1992).Political Cycles in OECD Economies.Review of Economic Studies,59,663-688.

Times Cited ( 23 ) 〈TOP〉

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