一觸即發或虛張聲勢：論一九九五、一九九六台海危機

Erupting or Bluffing: The 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis

蔡榮祥(Jung-Hsiang Tsai)

《台灣政治學刊》 11卷1期 (2007/06) Pp. 201-239

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.200706.11(1).201-239

摘要

九五、九六台海危機是美、中、台三角關係近年來之互動發展中，最嚴重的一次軍事和外交的衝突。回溯台海危機發生時，最壞的設想情況是戰爭會一觸即發，而最佳的設想情況是中國的軍事行動只是虛張聲勢。本文主要的研究問題是：一個正在崛起的大國（中國）為何要對台灣採取軍事演習的行動（邊緣政策）？、其背後的理性以及在國際社會的意涵為何？、為何中國於九五年進行第一次飛彈試射之後，又於九六年進行第二次飛彈試射？、為何在台海危機的過程中，美國作為一個超級強權對於中國的嚇阻會失敗？。主要的發現如下：第一、中國為了追求其在國際社會中地位之提昇，而選擇展示武力；第二、美國對中國之所以嚇阻失敗的原因是因為過度的合作承諾和低度的防衛承諾；第三、中國作為一個崛起的大國故意製造台海危機，以確保其外交影響力的增加。

關鍵字

崛起大國 ； 邊緣政策 ； 嚇阻失敗

並列摘要

The 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Missile Crisis was the most serious military and diplomatic conflict among the U.S., China and Taiwan in recent years. The worst possible scenario during the crisis was that China would wage a war with Taiwan that might drag the U.S into the war. The best possible scenario was that the Chinese military exercise was just a bluff. Why did a rising power (China)adopt a strategy of brinkmanship (military exercise)that targeted Taiwan? What were the reasons and international implications behind China's military actions? Why did China choose to initiate the second missile exercise in 1996? Why could a superpower (the U.S.) not deter China from engaging in military exercises targeting Taiwan (deterrence failure)? This paper aims to answer these questions. The main findings are that the reason why China chose to show force was in order to enhance China's own international status, the reason why the U.S. failed to deter China was because of its overcommitment in cooperating with China and low credibility in defending Taiwan, and the reason why China deliberately brought about the crisis was in order to increase its diplomatic influence.

並列關鍵字

rising power ； brinkmanship ； deterrence failure

參考文獻

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