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修憲議題與政黨偏好的交織:任務型國大選舉比例代表制的投票分析

The Interaction between the Amendment Issue and Party Identification: Voting Behavior under Proportional Representation in the National Assembly Election

摘要


2005年5月14日選出三百位國大代表集會,複決2004年立法院所提出的憲法修正案,由於當中亦包括廢除國民大會的修正條文,所以這次修憲所產生的首次任務型國大代表也成為最後一屆。這次選舉的特殊意義包括:一,任務型國大的修憲複決任務相當明確,選民投票的目的也僅止於表達修憲立場,加上各政黨及聯盟又被規定事先要表明各自的修憲立場,是以選民的投票準則相較其他形式的選舉都要來的明確,也更符合議題投票的預設;二,長期盤據台灣選舉的政黨光譜在這次選舉暫時地重新組合,民進黨與國民黨同樣贊成修憲,其他較小的泛藍及泛綠政黨則一起站在反對立場,這使得選民傳統的藍綠政黨認同與修憲議題產生不確定的交互作用;三,該次選舉是我國首次採用比例代表制,亦是世界少數採用全國單一選區比例代表制的情況,外加無選票門檻的限制及用最大餘數法來分配席次,這一連串制度設計都直接反映在選舉結果的比例代表性,並使得投票行為更貼近所謂的真誠投票反應。 本文透過巢狀勝算對數模型的應用,有幾點迥異於過去選舉研究的發現。其一,選民修憲立場的確會反映在國大選舉,但四項主要修正案的影響並不一致,本文發現贊成修憲的主要力量,來自選民對立委選制改革的支持。其次,選民統獨偏好在過去對藍綠政黨的支持上一直有決定性的影響,但在修憲選舉一反常態,並未對選民投下的政黨票產生任何作用。第三,類似的情況也發現在政黨認同和族群認同的變項上,它們雖對國、民兩黨間的取捨產生作用,但當選民面對其他選項間的比較時,並不見任何影響。這些發現打破傳統一昧以政黨認同及意識型態來解釋投票行為的迷思,顯示選制規則的變化及選舉內容的設定,對投票行為仍有一定的影響,值得吾人進一步省思。

並列摘要


Three hundred National Assemblymen were elected to make the Constitutional amendment in May 2005. Since the National Assembly itself was abolished as a result of this amendment, these so-called missionary assembly representatives became the first and last of their kind. The implications of this amendment election are as follows. First, compared with the general Congressmen, the duty of the amendment representatives is very straightforward. Since each party and alliance is required to express its amendment standpoint in advance, voters have better information as to why they are voting and also for what reason. Second, the conventional party spectrum was realigned momentarily during this campaign. Both the DPP and KMT supported the amendment standpoint, while other pan-blue and pan-green representatives stood together to veto the proposal. Third, proportional representation has been adopted for the first time in Taiwan. We also have implemented a national single list system that corresponds to this system, which is very rare in other countries. This paper makes a couple of observations that differ from those of previous electoral studies. First, the importance of four major amendment bills is not consistent. Of the four amendment issues, the electoral reform for the Legislative Yuan has played the most important role for the voters. Second, the voter's independence/unification preference has turned out to be insignificant in this election. Furthermore, party identification and ethnic identification have also been inconsequential. Such a result is essentially important in the sense that it surpasses the fairy tale of party identification and political ideology in explaining Taiwan's voting behavior.

參考文獻


陳陸輝(2000)。台灣選民政黨認同的持續與變遷。選舉研究。7,109-142。
Black, Duncan.(1958).The Theory of Committees and Elections.Cambridge, England:Cambridge University Press.
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Bowler, Shaun,David Farrell(1993).Legislator Shirking and Voter Monitoring: Impacts of European Parliament Electoral Systems upon Legislator-Voter Relationship.Journal of Common Market Studies.31(1),45-69.
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