晉升，還是離退？中共黨政菁英仕途發展的競爭性風險分析，1978-2008

Promotion or Departure? A Competing Risk Model for the Career Paths of China's Political Elites, 1978-2008

黃信豪(Hsin-Hao Huang)

《台灣政治學刊》 13卷1期 (2009/06) Pp. 161-224

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.200906.13(1).161-224

摘要

本文主旨爲探討中國大陸1978至2008年曾出任黨政正部級領導職務菁英的仕途發展模式。雖然近年來外界關注到中共菁英日益具備高學歷、技術專業化的共同背景，然而既有文獻僅關注菁英組成的特徵演變，菁英仕途發展模式成爲被忽略的研究課題。
基於政權演變與組織邏輯的理論視角，本文闡述中共如何在緊握專政的基本原則下，呈現兼顧經濟、社會發展與治理需求的人事安排。本文認爲，由於中共改革開放的調整路線主要來自於領導人更替下的偏好改變，在未迫適應環境的調整下，任何因應黨路線轉變的人事調整，將必須限制在維持黨專政的根本目的內。因此，不受到黨政治忠誠認可的專業菁英，將隨著時間不斷遭到更替；而能夠快速晉升至領導人者，也多是黨透過黨職歷練以確保其政治忠誠的領導幹部。這些仕途發展模式，透露出爲何中共得以在改革開放後追求經濟成長與現代化建設，亦能維持一黨專政的獨特演變路徑。

關鍵字

中共 ； 菁英甄補 ； 政權演變 ； 組織邏輯 ； 競爭性風險

並列摘要

This article studies the career paths of China's political elites in the reform era, through quantitative analyses of the elites who have held on to provincial gubernatorial or ministry level positions within the Chinese government and communist party over the period from March 1978 to March 2008. Even though the rise of technocrats has recently drawn much attention from scholars, the career path of political elites remains an overlooked topic, which has not been explored systematically.
Given the organizational logic, the author argues that the adjustment to the party's course in 1978 was basically initiated and designed according to the party leader's preferences. Since the CCP was not obliged to fundamentally change its party's course, the intension and extension of member adjustment would be limited to the purpose of maintaining the CCP's dictatorship. This organizational rationale has led to a consistent pattern of career paths for elites in China since 1978. Specifically, the technocrats without the political loyalty approved by the CCP would be replaced over time while those who hold strong political credentials, such as party-position experience could be promoted quickly. Such a career pattern reveals the unique way in which the regime has evolved in China, which seeks a balance between the survival prerequisite of one-party dictatorship and the functional target of economic development.

並列關鍵字

China ； elite recruitment ； career path ； regime revolution ； organizational logic ； competing risk

參考文獻

寇健文(2007)。胡錦濤時代團系幹部的崛起：派系考量vs．幹部輸送的組織任務。遠景基金會季刊。8(4)，49-95。

鄭爲元(1999)。發展型「國家」或發展型國家「理論」的終結？。台灣社會研究季刊。34，1-67。

趙建民、張鈞智(2006)。菁英循環與再生？十二大以來中共技術官僚的發展趨勢。中國大陸研究。49(2)，69-97。

吳玉山(2003)。探入中國大陸經改策略之研究：一個比較的途徑。中國大陸研究。46(3)，1-30。

黃信豪(2007)。量化研究的比較問題邏輯：因果異質性與縣市長選舉投票模型的建立。問題與研究。46(3)，125-154。