從“安全”與“利益”的兩難中解套：再思兩岸關係中的市場力量

Beyond the Dilemma of Security and Prosperity: Rethinking the Force of Market in the Cross-Strait Relations

林琮盛(Choung-Sheng Lin) ； 耿曙(Shu Keng)

《遠景基金會季刊》 6卷4期 (2005/10) Pp. 239-281

https://doi.org/10.7063/PQ.200510.0239

摘要

中國大陸自厲行改革開放後，經濟表現極為耀眼，其實質國內生產毛額以每年9%左右的速度成長。其具有全球優勢的「吸金組合」－包括成本低廉的勞動大軍、支撐成長的基礎建設、獎勵投資的稅率優惠、快速跟進的管理幹部、各地湧入的資金技術、日漸壯大的國內市場等，在在誘惑全球的投資者，紛起而逐鹿中國。以快速崛起的經濟實力為基礎，中國大陸當局於是取得對臺操作「經濟槓桿」的有力工具；其「經濟統戰」策略，也使臺灣陷入「經貿利得」與「國家安全」間的兩難境地。本文主張，「經濟交流」與「政治自主」並非對立互斥。在不對稱的經貿互賴下，中國大陸當局的經濟統戰策略，未必能發揮預期的成效。反之，臺灣不僅可化被動為主動，積極「布局中國大陸」，取得應有的影響力，亦能透過「談判交易」及「衝撞加碼」的方式，發掘自身「未盡開發的市場力量」，以進取中國大陸戰略產業部門，使其採用嚇阻手段時，必須負擔龐大的經濟成本，藉此緩和兩岸不對稱經貿結構的負面影響。

關鍵字

政治自主 ； 經濟槓稈 ； 戰略產業 ； 不對稱互賴 ； 未盡開發的市場力量

並列摘要

After post-Mao reforms, China has achieved a phenomenal growth record. Its real GDP increases with an average of 9% every year. Behind this achievement is China's ”advantage combinations”-including cheap labor force, various preferential policies, foreign investments & technology, catching-up managerial staff, heavy investments in infrastructures, and increasingly expanding domestic markets-all tempting businessmen around the world who come to invest China. Such economic base then empowers China, enabling the regime to employ economic leverage for its unification agenda. Such strategy imperils Taiwan's political autonomy and also leaves the island in a dilemma of ”economic prosperity” and ”national security.” In this paper, we argue against that thesis, claiming that there is no direct incompatibility between Taiwan's economic interests and political dignity. Even given the asymmetric economic interdependence, China's economic leverage may not work that effectively as been wished. On the contrary, Taiwan is able to make best use of its ”unexploited market power,” such as deploying its investments in China's strategic sectors and/or alternating compromises and confrontations for better deals with China. In this way, China has to bear much heavier costs when using force against Taiwan. The tension of military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait is thus alleviated and Taiwan's status in this asymmetric interdependence is improved.

並列關鍵字

Political Autonomy ； Economic Leverage ； Strategic Industries ； Asymmetric Interdependence ； Unexploited Market Power

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