經驗對台灣股票市場的分析師行為之影響

The Impact of Experience on Analysts' Behaviors in Taiwan Stock Market

陳柏榮(Po-Jung Chen) ； 林問一(Wen-Yi Lin) ； 林俊銘(Jiun-Ming Lin)

《台灣金融財務季刊》 14卷2期 (2013/06) Pp. 19-40

摘要

經驗對分析師的職場生涯扮演著重要的角色，而投資人也相對地比較會重視有經驗的分析師之意見。但是經驗對分析師行為的影響，在文獻上卻缺少完整性的探討。所以，本研究在這個議題上針對臺灣股票市場上的81位分析師進行問卷調查，以期能更進一步瞭解。結果發現，有經驗的分析師可能因為從不斷學習中培養出對投資的敏銳度，因此幫助他們更能瞭解資產價格的波動性，而增加其風險趨避的行為。儘管如此，經驗的累積讓分析師對自己的績效更具信心，因而產生不真實地正向自我評價，但卻對其從眾行為無顯著的影響。此外，本研究也發現分析師的基本特性也會對其行為產生影響。我們希望本文的研究結果能有助於政府管理當局、券商及投資人在做決策時之參考。

關鍵字

分析師 ； 過度自信 ； 從眾 ； 風險承擔

並列摘要

Experience plays an important role to the analysts' career concern, and investors comparatively pay more attention to the experienced analyst's suggestion. The research about the impact of experience on analysts' behavior is still rare, so that, this study is a questionnaire survey conducted on 81 analysts in Taiwan's stock market. The result discovered that the experienced analyst perhaps get the penetration of investing by learning. This helps them to find out the fluctuation of the asset prices and increase the risk adverse behavior. However, accumulation of experience let analyst have confidence to produce unrealistic positive self-evaluation for their own performance, but it does not have significant influence on herding. Besides, we also found that analysts' characteristics will have an impact on their behavior. Our study can help to make decisions by government, brokers and investors.

並列關鍵字

Analysts ； Overconfidence ； Herding ； Risk Taking

參考文獻

Ben-David, I., Graham, J., and Harvey, C. (2007), “Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies, ” Working paper, Duke University.

Christoffersen, S., and Sarkissian, S. (2002), “Location overconfidence, ” Working Paper, McGill University.

Graham, J., and Narasimhan, K. (2004), “Corporate survival and managerial experiences during the Great Depression, ” Working paper, Duke University.

Korniotis, G., and Kumar, A. (2006), “Does investment skill decline due to cognitive aging or improve with experience?, ” Working paper, University of Notre Dame.

Li, X. (2002), “Performance, herding, and career concerns of individual financial analysts, ”Working Paper, Vanderbilt University.