狀態的限定：從模型觀點為歷史限定論辯護

「歷史限定論」有不同的意義、表述或版本。但是有一個共通的主張，即「人類社會的歷史有其規律，我們有可能找到這些規律，並在相當的程度上預測社會的未來」。歷史限定論基本上是一個形上學的學說，但是它也可以用為方法論的立場，亦即主張歷史學或社會科學的研究，應該要尋找人類社會演變的規律或模式。歷史限定論是否是一個恰當可行方法學立場？波普在其著名的The Poverty of Historicism一書中雄辯滔滔地論證它是一個錯誤的方法學。本文企圖反對波普的觀點，並指出在重新理解「科學定律」的歷史限定論（「模型觀點」下的歷史限定論），是可以證成其恰當性與可行性。我們首先討論波普對「歷史定論主義」（即「歷史限定論」）的解釋與駁斥，再重新考察「限定論」這個概念，並檢討波普的反對論證。波普對歷史定論主義的刻畫，主要建立在述句觀點下的科學定律，可是這其實是錯誤的理解。1980年後的科學哲學對於自然科學和科學定律有不同於述句觀點的全新理解－建立在「模型觀點」上－它們更正確地掌握了科學定律的本質。這種模型基礎的理解將提供「歷史限定論」一個新解釋，並支持其恰當性和可行性。所以，本文辯護的歷史限（決）定論意謂人類社會的歷史發展，有其規律或模式，進而這些規律或模式可以是「限定的」，亦即某系統（人類社會）在某時刻的狀態會限定（決定）了它在任何一段時問之後的狀態，而且每個時間點上的狀態都是唯一的，從而使人類得以據以預測社會的未來。

關鍵字

歷史限定論；科學定律；模型；波普；社會科學的哲學

並列摘要

”Historical determinism” has different meanings, formulations, or versions. All of those versions have a common claim: we can find evolutionary patterns or regularities and, based on those regularities, predict futures of human societies. Although historical determinism has been traditionally took as a metaphysical doctrine, it can be treated as a methodological position which claims historically or socially scientific researches should find patterns or laws in the evolution of human societies. Is historical determinism, as a methodological position, adequate and available? In his eloquent monograph, The Poverty of Historicism, Popper argued historical determinism was a wrong methodological position. I attempt to argue against Popper's view and point out to the adequacy and availability of some version of historical determinism can be justified, based on a reinterpretation of ”scientific laws”. Popper's characterization of historical determinism is based on the interpretation of scientific laws as universal statements. It's a wrong understanding from which ”the poverty of historicism” results. A model-based understanding of scientific laws, which correctly grasps the nature of scientific laws and stemmed from latest philosophy of science after 1980s, will provide a well-formed ground for the adequacy and availability of historical determinism. Historical determinism is therefore a thesis which claims there are deterministic patterns or laws in the historical development of human societies. A deterministic pattern or law means that the initial state of a system at one time would determine every states of the system at any time after that time. Every states of the system at each time are unique so that we can predict exactly the future of a social system.