當代南海問題的函數解析：兼論兩岸合作的可能性

Cross-Strait Relations and the Development of Issues about South China Sea

鞠海龍(Hai-Long Ju)

《全球政治評論》 29期 (2010/01) Pp. 81-94

摘要

本文希望以南海問題的原始形態－雙邊爭議－作為變數構建函數，由此漸次引入中美關係、越南與菲律賓等「大國平衡戰略」、兩岸關係與台灣對東南亞政策等對南海問題有直接和間接影響的變數，針對南海問題進行解析；事實上兩岸關係對於和平解決南海問題有不可忽視的影響。它不僅與南海問題諸變數都有特定聯繫，同時影響中國透過國際仲裁和平解決南海問題之證據鏈的完整性和有效性。儘管兩岸主張的「南海主權」在概念上有所差異，但若能儘早培養在南海問題上的默契與共識，當可有助於問題的最終解決。

關鍵字

南海問題 ； 函數與變數 ； 兩岸關係

並列摘要

The author constructs the function on the basis of the original form of the South China Sea issue-Bilateral disputes variables, and then, gradually introduces the Sino-US relations; the strategy of balancing the powers of Philippines, Vietnam and other countries; the cross-strait relations, and the policy on southeast Asia of Taiwan, all of which are variables that have direct or indirect impact on the South China Sea issue. From a Series of Analysis on the South China Sea issue, we can conclude that the impact of the cross-strait relations on this issue can not be ignored, which has not only the specific relationship with the variables of the South China Sea issue, but also has impact on the integrity and effectiveness of the peaceful settlement on this issue through international arbitration. It is urgently that the two sides should cultivate understanding and consensus on the South China Sea issue, under the premise of the safeguarding of the interests of China.

並列關鍵字

South China Sea Issue ； Functions and Variables ； Cross-Strait Relations