公司治理、盈餘管理與財務預警模型之建構

許溪南; 歐陽豪; 陳慶芳

doi:10.30139/JACG.200706.0004

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P85 - 121

Social Sciences > Finance & Accounting
Social Sciences > Management

DOI： 10.30139/JACG

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公司治理、盈餘管理與財務預警模型之建構

Corporate Governance, Earnings Management, and the Construction of Financial Warning Models

許溪南(Hsinan Hsu) ；歐陽豪(Ou-Yang Hou) ；陳慶芳(Ching-Fang Chen)

會計與公司治理； 4卷1期 (2007 / 06 / 01) ， P85 - 121

繁體中文 DOI： 10.30139/JACG.200706.0004

公司治理；盈餘管理；財務預警模型；財務危機機率預測； Corporate Governance ； Earnings Management ； The Financial Early Warning Model ； Probability of Financial Distress

Abstract │ Reference (65) │ Times Cited (51) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

In contrast to the traditional modelling of financial distress construction in the firm level using only accounting ratio variables in financial statements, this paper uses earnings management index, accounting variables, and corporate governance variables to construct models for business financial distress. We adopted 63 companies of financial distress and 126 healthy companies to be our samples during the period 1998 to 2004. For matching is used in the analysis, we construct 7 warning models for financial distress, and then use the logistic regression to examine the effects of earnings management index, accounting ratio variables and corporate governance variables on the predictive power of financial distress. The empirical results show that, for earnings management index, discretionary accruals item has positive effect on financial distress, but the significant level is not consitent in different models. For accounting ratio variables, the cash flow ratio has significantly negative effect on financial distress probability. For corporate governance variables, the pledging ratio of shareholdings of directors and supervisors has significantly positive effect on financial distress probability. The financial early warning model constructed using earnings management index, accounting variables and corporate governance variables has the highest predictive power of accuracy. The predicted probability of financial crisis for the distressed companies in the sample is 95.24%, 84.13% and 71.4% for one year, two years and three years before the financial distress, respectively. This finding has a substantial implication and contribution to the financial warning modeling of corporate distress.

Reference ( 65 ) 〈TOP〉

呂麒麟、向少華(2005)。台股機構投資人對經理人盈餘管理影響之研究。朝陽商管評論，4(1)，1-21。
連結：
李建然(2000)。影響台灣上市公司自願性盈餘預測頻率之研究。會計評論，32，49-79。
連結：
張瑞當、方俊儒、曾玉琦(2007)。核心代理問題與盈餘管理：董事會結構與外部監督機制之探討。管理學報，24(1)，17-39。
連結：
陳錦村、葉雅薰(2002)。公司改組、監督機制與盈餘管理之研究。會計評論，34，1-29。
連結：
Aharony, J.,C.-J. Lin,M. P. Loeb.(1993).Initial public offerings, accounting choices, and earnings management.Contemporary Accounting Research,10,61-81.

Times Cited ( 51 ) 〈TOP〉

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