土地利用變遷與空間相依性之探討以臺北盆地聚落變遷為例

Exploring Land Use Changes and Spatial Dependence a Case Study of Settlement Changes in the Taipei Basin

賴進貴(Jinn-Guey Lay) ； 葉高華(Ko-Hua Yap) ； 王韋力(Weiley Wang)

《臺灣地理資訊學刊》 1期 (2004/10) Pp. 29-40

https://doi.org/10.29790/JTGIS.200410.0003

摘要

新近發展的細胞自動機模式，主要架構包含鄰近區型態和演化之間的關係，其理論及概念和空間自相關所探討的空間相依性(spatial dependence)相近。本研究選擇臺北盆地過去100年的聚落發展為素材，利用空間自相關的分析方法探討鄰近區土地利用型態對於變遷的影響。賦予聚落網格1的屬性值並利用Gi(上標 *)(d)進行空間自相關分析，研究結果顯示非聚落發展成聚落的傾向常伴 隨著高度的空間自相關。針對鄰近區範圍的界定，本研究個案顯示500公尺半徑所界定的鄰近區對聚落變遷趨勢的影響程度最大。這些發現可以作為CA模式中，有關鄰近區範圍半徑及演化規則之參考。本文並針對研究過程中所發現的限制因素加以討論，提供未來發展CA模式研究者之參考。

關鍵字

土地利用變遷 ； 空間相依性 ； 細胞自動機 ； 空間自相關

並列摘要

In a cellular automata model (CA), land use changes are affected by the states of neighborhood. The concept of neighborhood correlates with spatial dependence which can be analyzed using spatial autocorrelation. This research compiled settlement data of the Taipei Basin over the past one hundred years and adopted spatial autocorrelation methods to investigate the relations between spatial dependence and land use changes. By assigning settlement grids the value 1 and using Gi(superscript *)(d) value as an index for autocorrelation, this research found that non-settlements grids were more likely to change into settlements giving a high Gi(superscript *) (d) value. Also, within a 500 meters radius of the neighborhood range, the influences of autocorrelation to land use changes are most significant. The findings of this research are applicable to defining the transition rules of CA. This paper also addresses some limiting factors that affect the implementation of CA and points out some directions for future research.

並列關鍵字

land use change ； spatial dependence ； cellular automata ； spatial autocorrelation

參考文獻

Anselin, L.,Fischer, M.,Scholten, J.,Unwin, D. (eds.)(1996).Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS.Taylor & Francis.

Batty, M.,Couclelis, H.,Eichen, M.(1997).Urban systems as cellular automata.Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design.24(2),159-305.

Clarke, K. C.,Hoppen, S.,Gaydos, L.(1997).A self-modifying cellular automata model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area.Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design.24,247-261.

Cliff, A.,Ord, J. K.(1973).Spatial Autocorrelation.London:Pion.

Cliff, A.,Ord, J. K.(1981).Spatial Processes: Models and Applications.London:Pion.