論大地工程的不確定性與風險評估

Evaluating Uncertainty and Risk in Geotechnical Engineering

紀雲曜(Y. Y. Chi) ； 李雅芬(Y. F. Lee) ； 李上妤(Y. S. Lee)

《危機管理學刊》 3卷1期 (2006/03) Pp. 1-10

https://doi.org/10.6459/JCM.200603_3(1).0001

摘要

大地工程中經常利用統計機率方法進行分析，如山崩、液化、港埠基礎及環境問題等，應用的階段包括工址評選、現場調查、設計、方案評選及施工，並對各階段所承受的風險進行評估。本文首先由「機率」的定義，說明大地工程如何考慮機率，並以邊坡穩定為案例，探討如何進行機率式評估，及應用機率方法所得到的結果進一步確定風險值，最後提出未來尚待研究的課題，以供國土利用規劃參考。

關鍵字

大地工程 ； 風險 ； 機率 ； 評估

並列摘要

The statistical probabilistic methods are used in Geotechnical Engineering such as landslide, liquefaction, port foundation, environmental problems and so on. The stages for applying probabilistic methods include site decision, field investigation, design, scheme decision and construction. Plus the bearing risks of every stage are evaluated, too. First, the purpose of this paper is to introduce how the probability can be considered in geotechnical engineering by the definition of probability. Slope stable was taken as study case. This paper probed how the probabilistic evaluation can be proceed and confirmed the risk value further according to the results gained form application of probabilistic methods. Finally, the issues required for further study were discussed. It can be for reference in geotechnical engineering practices.

並列關鍵字

Geotechnical Engineering ； risk ； probability ； evaluation

參考文獻

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