以中國大陸觀點看南海議題之風險管理

本研究應用失效模式與效應分析(FMEA)，結合「政策、經濟、社會、技術（軍事）」因素分析，提供決策者更多量化決策數據。此可量化FMEA模式乃運用多準則決策之概念，以多層級分析架構，簡化複雜問題；然後，以中共之角度，透過想定分析與量化風險指標方式，評估南海相關議題，探討其風險管理及軍事能力，提出發展之可行方案，進行預防管制作為，建立一套區分五步驟之標準評估作業模式；並期能透過此議題與作業模式，提供國軍進一步量化軍事能力規劃之參考，以提出有效預應措施，確保國家利益。

關鍵字

失效模式與效應分析；南海；戰略

並列摘要

This paper proposes a blended method, which is with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and ＂Policy, Economic, Social, Technological (Military)＂, PEST analysis. It is able to provide an insight of problem with quantitative result for decision-maker. This method bases upon the concept of Multiple-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) employing multi-hierarchy scheme to simplify the complex issues in the first place. In PRC's views, the ＂scenario analysis＂ and ＂risk evaluation＂ are followed for weighting the influences of the South China Sea Issues and quantifying the military capability development alternatives of PRC. We find out the prevention and correction of high RPNs' events and set a standard five-step operation procedure as the references to the FMEA. We expect this method and conclusion can offer Ministry of National Defense (MND) another way to foresee our military capability development. The quantitative study will make an effective responsive measure in order to secure the sovereignty and national benefits.