重大天然災害產物損失對農業及整體經濟影響－以莫拉克與凡那比颱風為例

The Economic Impact from Agricultural Products Loss and Overall Economic Caused by Natural Disasters in Taiwan-The Case in Typhoon Moroak and Fanapi

林幸君(Hsing-Chun Lin) ； 周秝宸(Li-Chen Chou) ； 張冠珍(Kuan-Zhen Chang)

《社會科學論叢》 7卷1期 (2013/04) Pp. 47-77

https://doi.org/10.30401/RSS.201304_7(1).0002

摘要

雖然農業產值僅占現在台灣整體GDP不到2的比例，但農業仍舊扮演帶動其他產業發展的角色。然而在農業生產過程中，常因不可控制的天災影響進而造成最終財、農地或生產器材的損害；且這些損害會透過產業關聯效果傳遞進一步對整體經濟產出及特定區域就業造成影響。一旦這類不可掌控的天然災害爆發，即會對農業活動或勞動市場產生直接與間接的衝擊。為衡量出這類衝擊所對產出損害與就業效果的影響，本文以莫拉克與凡那比颱風為例，運用Miller and Blair（1985）供給面投入產出分析（Input Output Analysis）進行探討。實證結果發現：莫拉克颱風及凡那比颱風使農工業受創，產出減損的乘數效果分別為1.49及1.33，且造成失業率分別上升0.13個百分點及0.06個百分點。

關鍵字

投入產出分析 ； 就業效果 ； 天然災害 ； 農業損失

並列摘要

Although Taiwan's agricultural production only accounts for less than 2% of total GDP, agriculture industry still plays an important role to support the development of other industries. However, during the production process, agriculture industry often suffers loss, in final production result and farming field and facility, caused by uncontrollable natural disasters. And transferred by the industrial linkage effect, this kind of production decrease impact will be seen on overall economy output and employment in that particular region. Once these uncontrollable natural disasters happen, the direct and indirect impact will change the agricultural activities and the labor market. Therefore, in this paper we try to apply supply side Input-Output analysis which constructed by Miller and Blair (1985) to evaluate the economic impacts from products loss and the employment effect which caused by the typhoon Moroak and Vanapi in Taiwan. The empirical results indicate that the typhoon Moroak and Vanapi not only create the multiplier of production losses (1.49 and 1.33), but also raise the unemployment rate to 0.13% and 0.06%.

並列關鍵字

Input-Output Analysis ； Employment Effect ； Natural Disaster ； Products Losses in Agriculture

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