天然災害社會脆弱度指標之建立及評估：以鄉鎮層級為例

Establishing and Assessing Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) of Natural Disasters: Town Level Application

楊惠萱(Hui-Hsuan Yang) ； 陳怡臻(Yi-Chen Chen) ； 李欣輯(Hsin-Chi Li)

《災害防救科技與管理學刊》 3卷2期 (2014/09) Pp. 71-93

https://doi.org/10.6149/JDM.2014.0302.04

摘要

本文藉由發展社會脆弱度指標（SVI）架構作為量性評估方法中，指標選取的核心範疇，有4分類，12次類，並利用層級分析法（AHP）決定權重值，進行臺灣各鄉鎮市區社會脆弱度評估。利用專家問卷測得之權重以四分類中的暴露量與減災整備為高，顯示專家認為社會脆弱度主要受前兩者影響較大。在暴露量中，又以人口的權重較高，減災整備則較重視防治工程類。依據評估架構，選定24項指標項目進行SVI計算，因指標項目中有特定災害情境關聯性較高的項目，如水利工程設施量、山坡地超限利用比，因此將綜合評估結果劃分為水災社會脆弱度及坡地災害社會脆弱度。結果顯示桃園縣中壢市及南投縣水里鄉分別為水災及坡地災害社會脆弱度最高的鄉鎮市區，主要影響原因除專家加權效果外，暴露量高及減災整備能力較差為其主要影響因素。災害後果風險（outcome risk）的降低，並非僅著眼於對危害的監測技術，而是在平時如何改善或降低脆弱性，SVI可協助災害管理者瞭解一地區之弱點，並依據評估結果排定推動相關防減災政策之優先順序，降低災害後果風險。

關鍵字

社會脆弱度 ； 層級分析法 ； 能力評估

並列摘要

According to social vulnerability definition, this paper developed Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) framework for disaster risk management. The framework have two levels, the first level consisted of four major elements: exposure, mitigation and preparedness capacity, response capacity, recovery capacity. Second level is developed by classifying the details of each element. According to the framework, 24 indicators were selected to represent each element. This research adopted AHP method to decide the weight of each element and each sub-classification by analyzing the survey data answered by a group of experts and professionals in disaster management field to derive an aggregate SVI score of each town. Through SVI assessment, regional vulnerability can be described more concretely and completely. With the experts' point of view, exposure, mitigation and preparedness capacity are more important than response and recovery capacity. The results were divided into two types, SVI of Flood and SVI of landslide, it shows that the places with higher density of population, more economic activities, lack of mitigation measures and strategies are more vulnerable, such as Jungli city of Taoyuan county and Shueili Town of Nantou county. SVI is a trigger to reveal the weak points toward disaster risks in societies and regions, further, SVI can provide the priorities to execute mitigation measures for disaster risk management.

並列關鍵字

Social vulnerability ； Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) ； Capacity assessment

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