拜登時期美中博弈與美日同盟聯合軍演之評析

Evaluation of the U.S.-Sino Gaming and the US-Japan Alliance during the Biden Era

陳文甲(Wen-Chia Chen)

《亞洲政經與和平研究》 9期 (2022/04) Pp. 25-49

摘要

當前美中博弈主導整個印太局勢發展，美中博弈之所以方興未艾如同「修昔底德陷阱」（Thucydides's Trap）的觀點，只因近年「大國崛起」的中國，企圖以「重建國際新秩序」為名，實行「建構全球霸權」之實，直面挑戰美國的世界霸主地位，引發近年來美中之間「外交、軍事、經濟」等面向的競爭與衝突。所以美國在前任總統川普採取「美國優先、美中貿易戰」的「單邊主義」進行「鬥而不破」的「戰略嚇阻」；如今拜登政權更以「聯合盟友、反制中國」的外交安保政策，連結「美日同盟」（Japan-US Alliance）、「四方安全對話」（Quad）、七國集團峰會（G7）及北大西洋公約組織峰會（NATO）等，加大力度以多邊形式，聯合盟友加入「天下圍中」的行列，並以「圍而不攻」之勢，舉行16場重要的多國聯合軍演劍指中國。細究2021年4月起以美國為首的多國軍演，旨在遂行美國對中國實施「離岸制衡戰略」（Offshore Balancing Strategy），即是美國在東海、南海、西太平洋及印度洋，連結日本、澳洲及印度等Quad國家，以及遠在歐洲的英國、法國、德國、荷蘭與北美洲的加拿大的聯合作戰，加大對中國圍堵牽制力度；而究美國的「離岸制衡戰略」是奏效的，因為對這幾個國家來說既可以制約中國，又可分攤區域安保責任，自然美國就不用投入大規模部署軍事力量於印太區域，尤其是美國的最忠實的盟友日本，在安保責任加重之後，表現更為積極，從而在當前國際政治權力結構中更具話語權與份量。所以本文置研究重心於美中博弈的局勢發展，先行梳理美日等多國壓制中國的多場聯合軍演，並對「美日同盟與台海安全」最為重要的美日「東方之盾－2021」（The Orient Shield 21）軍演提出戰略分析，梳理該軍演的概況特點與目的，進而探討美日同盟與台灣的「地緣、經濟、民主」等三大鏈結，兼談美中博弈的未來發展概為「戰略圍堵」與「反戰略圍堵」，因此台灣在美中持續博弈下可能出現的「安全困境」或「且戰且和」的情勢下，除積極「自助人助」的發展國力外，尤需密切關注美日與中國關係的變化，俾利及早因應，乃為文旨趣。

關鍵字

美中博弈 ； 美日同盟 ； 「東方之盾－2021」軍演 ； 美日台三大鏈結 ； 台灣應處

並列摘要

The Sino-U.S. strategic game is currently dominating the development of the entire Indo-Pacific region. Just like the ＂Thucydides's Trap＂, the reason why the Sino-U.S. strategic game is still on the rise is that China is a ＂rising power＂ in recent years, has attempted to ＂build global hegemony＂ in the name of ＂re-establishing a new international order＂, and has directly challenged the U.S. hegemony in the world, leading to competition and conflicts between the U.S. and China in recent years in the areas of ＂diplomacy, military and economy＂. Therefore, the United States has adopted the ＂unilateralism＂ of ＂America First, U.S.-China Trade War＂ under the former President Trump to carry out ＂strategic deterrence＂ of ＂fighting instead of breaking＂; now the Biden administration has adopted the foreign security policy of ＂uniting allies to counter China＂, linking such as the ＂Japan-US Alliance＂, ＂Quad＂, ＂G7 Summit＂ and ＂North Atlantic Treaty Organization Summit＂ (NATO), in order to work together to unite their allies in a multi-lateral manner to join the ＂global siege of China＂, and have held 16 major multinational joint military exercises to target against China. The U.S.-led multinational military exercises from April 2022 are aimed at implementing the ＂Offshore Balancing Strategy＂ against China, that is, the U.S. will be in the East China Sea, South China Sea, Western Pacific and Indian Ocean, linking Quad countries such as Japan, Australia and India, as well as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Canada in North America. The ＂Offshore Balancing Strategy＂ of the United States is effective because it can restrain China and share the regional security responsibility among these countries, so that the United States does not have to invest in large-scale deployment of military forces in the Indo-Pacific region. Japan, in particular, is one of the most loyal allies of the United States, which has become more active after increasing of security responsibility, thus becoming more vocal and significant in the current international political power structure. Therefore, this paper focuses on the development of the Sino-U.S. strategic game, and firstly, it compares a number of joint military exercises conducted by the U.S. and Japan to suppress China, and proposes a strategic analysis of the most important U.S.-Japanese military exercise ＂The Orient Shield 21＂ on ＂U.S.-Japanese Alliance and Taiwan Strait Security＂, which examines the four major links between the U.S.-Japan alliance and Taiwan: ＂geopolitical, economic, democratic, and defense＂, and to discuss the future development of the Sino-U.S. strategic game as ＂strategic encirclement＂ and ＂counter-strategic encirclement＂. In addition to actively developing its national strength by ＂helping others to help themselves,＂ with the possible ＂security dilemma＂ or ＂war and peace＂ situation under the continuous strategic game between the U.S. and China, Taiwan needs to pay close attention to the changes in the relationship between the U.S., Japan, and China in order to respond to them as early as possible.

並列關鍵字

Sino-US strategic game ； US-Japan alliance ； Oriental Shield 21 ； Three major links between the US, Japan and Taiwan ； Response from Taiwan