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都市複雜系統中規劃效度之量測：電腦模擬分析
Measurement of Urban Planning Validity: Analysis of Computer Simulations
摘要
支持都市規劃的進行所根據的是都市規劃所產生的效度，但學界對於規劃效度的探討並不多，主因在於難以從實際案例中確認規劃的影響（Hopkins, 2001）。本研究嘗試以細胞自動機（cellular automata, CA）理論為基礎，在CA模擬都市演化過程下，進行規劃效度之量測，視都市空間的演化過程為許多土地開發決策互動下的產物，且等同於CA演化結果所呈現的時空圖，而規劃的發生即是對都市空間的演化進行改變。規劃決策過程的描述則以行為決策理論中的貝氏定理（Bayes' theorem）來推算，此規劃邏輯的基礎在於規劃者無法預測都市未來之演化，且都市演化的不確定性使規劃者需經由過去都市演化狀態之資訊蒐集來制定決策。本研究分析都市規劃引入後是否能提供資訊以降低不確定性，並試圖驗證規劃引入都市發展過程是否能帶來效益。模擬結果發現，規劃的效度與規劃投資為正相關，即規劃投資越多效果越大，且會隨著規劃所進行資訊蒐集範圍的增加而增加，會隨著規劃引入期間的增加而減少，在不同的規劃類型下亦會有所不同。
並列摘要
Generally speaking, the backing for the implementation of plans for urban development is the validity of these plans, but at present, there is not much discussion on the planning validity in the literature, mainly because it is difficult to measure the impacts of planning in practice (Hopkins, 2001). This paper attempts to measure the planning effects under the cellular automata (CA) simulation of urban evolutionary process, and regards the evolutionary process of urban spaces as the products of many land development decisions interacting with each other that are equivalent to the spatio-temporal map presented by CA evolutionary results. The emergence of planning behaviors is to change the evolution of urban spaces. In the present paper, the description of planning decision-making process is based on Bayes' theorem in behavioral decision theory, and the basis of the planning behavioral logic is that the planner cannot fully predict the future evolution of the city, and that the uncertainty of urban evolution makes the planner need to make decisions through the collection of information on the past urban evolution states and its own knowledge judgment. Under this conceptual framework, this paper analyzes whether urban planning can provide information to reduce uncertainty after the introduction of planning process, and attempts to verify that the introduction of planning behaviors into the urban development process can bring about benefits. The simulation results show that planning investments and planning effects are positively correlated, that is, the more planning investments, the greater the effects, that planning effects will increase with the widening of the scope of information collection carried out by planning, that planning effects will decrease with the increase of the number of planning intervals, and that planning effects will be different under different planning types. Relevant research implications will be discussed accordingly.