臺灣總統大選對於兩岸關系産生的影響：選票極大化模式與戰略三角途徑

The Impact of Taiwan's Presidential Elections on Cross-Strait Relations: Vote-Maximizing Model and Strategic Triangle Approach

吳玉山(Yu-Shan Wu)

《遠景季刊》 1卷3期 (2000/07) Pp. 1-33

https://doi.org/10.7063/PR.200007.0001

摘要

本文運用選票極大化策略模式與戰略三角理論來分析中華民國第十任總統大選對於兩岸關係的影響。由於台灣的民意在統獨和安全／經濟的兩條議題軸線上都表現出趨中的傾向，因此各政黨在競逐總統職位時都提出趨中的大陸政策。表現在民進黨的總統候選人與當選人陳水扁的政策立場上，就是選前的「新中間路線」與當選後願意將「一個中國」作為與中國大陸對談的議題。類似的政治壓力也影響到美國的中國政策。在美國總統大選前後（特別是在選前），理想主義會高漲，而華府的中國政策會向台北傾斜；在兩次的總統大選之間，現實主義會執牛耳，美國的中國政策會向北京傾斜。在中國大陸方面，雖然沒有週期性的選舉，但是國內政治仍然發揮了很大的影響力。在社會主義意識形態已經無法作為中共政權合法性基礎的情形之下，北京依靠的是民族主義和經濟表現，而此二者在對台灣的政策上有著相互衝突的要求。民族主義要求對台灣施壓、對台獨不惜一戰；而經濟表現要求一個穩定安全、和西方與台灣和平相處的環境。北京的對台政策，會在這兩種壓力和要求之下擺盪。中共的黨代表大會也像民主國家的定期選舉一樣，造成對於在位者權力地位挑戰的時機，也因此促使執政者對台採取較強硬的政策。由於台灣、美國和中國大陸三方面的國內政治都對於其兩岸政策產生重大影響，因此美國和兩岸之間的相對政策位置距離就不斷變動。根據此種分析，總統大選雖然由一向主張台灣獨立的民進黨獲勝，但是對於兩岸關係的衝擊卻有限。而當三方的國內政治條件都改變之後，對台北的安全威脅才會增加。

並列摘要

This article applies the ”vote-maximizing model” to analyze the impact of the ROC's 2000 presidential elections on cross-strait relations. Because public opinion features standard distribution on both unification-independence issue and security vs. economic interest issue, the mainland policy of the various political parties of Taiwan tend to converge toward the center. This tendency is embodied in Chen Shui-bian's ”new middle road” and his willingness to discuss with mainland China on the issue of ”one China” after he was elected president. Similar political pressure is put on American political parties concerning the US's China policy. During elections the US administration usually meet strong criticism from the Congress, the rank and file citizen. Since maximizing votes is the primary consideration of the incumbent party, there is always a tilt toward idealism and Taiwan. However, during the inter-electoral periods the US administration tilted back toward realism and take a pro-Beijing stance. In mainland China, economic performance and nationalism are the two remaining pillars of the Communist Party's legitimacy. The emphasis on the former results in pursuit of peace in the Taiwan Strait, while the stress on the latter tends to harden Beijing's stance toward Taiwan. The party congress held at five years' intervals pose challenge to the incumbents and induces them to take harsh policies toward Taiwan. The presidential elections and their aftermath pose no real threat to Taiwan, as the combination of domestic factors in the three countries during this period of time is conducive to peace and security in the Taiwan Straits. However, 2001 and 2002 bodes ill to Taiwan, as the combination of domestic factors then will move to Taiwan's disadvantage.

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