坡地災害家戶損失模型之建立與應用

Modeling Slopeland Household Loss and Application

李欣輯(Hsin-Chi Li) ； 楊惠萱(Hui-Hsuan Yang)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 23卷4期 (2011/12) Pp. 437-444

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.201112_23(4).0009

摘要

本研究依據2005年實際坡地災害調查資料及多元線性迴歸法建立家戶損失模型。經分析得知土石掩埋的面積、掩埋深度、受災經驗、家庭人口數、建築材料、社區備災及住宅類型（純住宅）等因子和家戶損失呈高度的顯著相關。文中並以2009年於莫拉克颱風期間遭土石流災害侵襲的台東縣大武鄉大鳥村為示範案例，進行大鳥村實際坡地災害之家戶損失計算。本模型除了應用於家戶損失計算外，亦可透過因子分析的結果提供有用的防災方法，例如減少災前家庭人口數（災前的疏散避難）、平時的備災工作（社區預警系統、水土保持），或是應用損失分析的結果進一步擬定地區之坡地保全計畫等等，均可有效減少家戶損失，對於坡地之減備災工作有相當大的助益。

關鍵字

坡地損失 ； 多元線性迴歸 ； 脆弱性分析 ； 家戶調查

並列摘要

This study proposed a slopeland loss model based on survey data. A set of standardized questionnaires containing information with regards to demographic background, financial damages, disaster experiences as well as risk perception were filled in by all the participants. The result of the regression model showed that, all the variables included were statistically significant, such as the coverage area, the height of coverage, disasters experiences, the number of people per household, construction type-RC and community preparedness behaviors. And the ”Daniao village, Taitung County, Taiwan” is chosen to perform a real assessment. Furthermore, the results not only can be applied for loss assessment, but also can provide some useful reduction suggestions, such as reduce household numbers before disaster occurs (pre-evacuation), upgrade higher community readiness, draw up the slopeland protected plan based on the loss results, all can lead to less financial loss.

並列關鍵字

slopeland loss ； Multiple linear regression ； Vulnerability analysis ； Household survey