本文探討家庭背景對個人升學機率的影響,如何隨著整體就學機會的增加而變化。首先,我們以一個簡單模型說明,當就學機會增加之後,家庭背景對個人就學機率的影響,視當時就學比例的高低而定。當就學比例偏低(夠高)時,就學機會的繼續增加會使得家庭背景的影響增強(減弱)。其次,使用1978-2001年的「人力資源調查」資料,對各個升學階段的實證結果,與模型的預期相當一致。此外,就個人就讀大學的機率而言,家庭背景的影響力增加的走勢與整體大學升學機會的增加亦步亦趨。父或母為老師的影響,1997-2001年間甚至高達11.75%,比父母親教育程度的影響都大。最後,對照考試成績與家庭背景的正向關係,現行公私立大學間學生學費負擔與政府對公私立學校補助的差異;其實是一種反向的所得重分配。
This paper investigates how does the effect of family background on one's probability of moving upward along the educational system change as the aggregate educational opportunity increases. We use a model to illustrate that whether the increase in educational opportunity will enhance or lessen the effect of family background depends on the initial enrollment rate. When the initial enrollment rate is low, for example, the increase in the enrollment rate will make the effect of family background stronger. Empirical results from the 1978-2001 surveys are consistent with the model's predictions. The expansion of college enrollment rate increases the effect of family background on the probability of entering college. Specifically, children of teachers are more likely to get a college education by 11.75% in 1997-2001. Given that the probability of obtaining college education is positively correlated with family background, the so-called ”low tuition” policy for public college are in fact a reverse income redistribution.