中共國防預算與經濟發展相關性之研究

A Study for the Correlation between PRC's Defense Budget and Economic Development

楊子申(Tzu-Shen Yang) ； 趙忠傑(Chung-Chien Chao)

《國防管理學報》 35卷2期 (2014/11) Pp. 15-36

摘要

中共自1978年改革開放以來，持續的穩步成長與茁壯全世界都有目共睹，除了經濟方面，在軍備建設上中共也不停的朝向高科技與現代化積極發展，根據中共國家統計局的統計資料顯示，近年來中共國防費用有不斷的攀升的現象。為更進一步了防預算的增長情況，本研究以中共的經濟發展為切入點，運用統計量化方法從客觀的角度界定兩者之相關程度，並以逐步迴歸分析方法建構有效的中共國防預算預測模型。此外，為了更加完善對中共國防預算的研究，本研究在量化分析經濟因素之後，更進一步運用研究建構之模型對中共未來十年的國防預算進行趨勢預測。經過綜整，本研究發現經濟發展因素為預測中共國防預算不可或缺的要項，且透過經濟變項建構之模型可達到不錯的預測能力。

關鍵字

中華人民共和國 ； 國防預算 ； 經濟發展 ； 迴歸分析

並列摘要

Since the Chinese economic reform was implemented in 1978, it has been obvious to notice that People's Republic of China is evolving and growing stably. Not only the economy-based change, but the armament construction of PRC also keeps developing actively towards high-technology and modernization. According to the statistical data from National Bureau of Statistics of PRC, the PRC’s defense budget has continued to rise. To further understand the growth in the defense budget of PRC, this study investigates the correlation between the economic development and the defense budget of PRC. In addition, Stepwise Regression Analysis method is used to construct an effective prediction model of defense budget for PRC. Besides quantitative analysis, in order to make it more perfect for the research of PRC's defense budget, this study also use the model to predict defense budget for PRC in the next decade. In sum, this study discovers that economic development are indispensable factors in PRC's defense budget prediction. Furthermore, the model based on economic variables have good predictive ability.

並列關鍵字

People's Republic of China ； Defense Budget ； Economic Development ； Regression Analysis