美援對1950年代臺海危機期間臺灣財政融通的重要意義

自1949年以來，美國對臺提供46億美元的軍經援助，其中軍援31億美元，經援15億美元，其對臺灣財政影響深遠，卻鮮少被深入討論。基此，本文系統性地整理對臺美援資料，透過類如歷史制度論的分析方式，了解美援對臺財政融通的重要性，尤其在臺海危機之關鍵時刻，亦即1954、1955、1958年度，其金額占臺灣GNP之比率甚至接近30%，超過稅收占GNP的比率。且經由迴歸分析發現，1950年代臺灣經過兩次臺海危機，美援融通政府支出，尤其是國防支出，明顯產生在斷續變遷下的臨時性「位移效果」。處此情況，若無美援融通與支撐，臺灣財政大量仰賴舉債或發行通貨，其經濟發展歷史路徑恐將改變。

關鍵字

美援；臺海危機；財政融通；關鍵時刻；位移效果

並列摘要

Since 1949, the United States has provided US$ 4.6 billion to Taiwan, including US$ 3.1 billion in military aid and US$ 1.5 billion in economic aid. This has important fiscal implications for Taiwan which are rarely discussed in depth. This paper systematically collects data for U.S. Aid to Taiwan, and adopts a historical institutionalist approach to probe the contribution of U.S. Aid to public financing in Taiwan. It is found that U.S. Aid played an important role in Taiwan, especially during the Taiwan Strait crisis in the 1950s. The ratio of U.S. Aid to GNP for the years 1954, 1955, and 1958 was around 30% higher than the ratio of tax revenue to GNP. An empirical study provides evidence of a significant ＂displacement effect＂ caused by the injection of U.S. Aid, especially in defense spending during the 1950s. Without U.S. Aid, Taiwan might have had to rely on debt-financing or issuing money to meet its fiscal expenditure. The economic history of Taiwan would need to be rewritten.