- 期刊
基於LCOE的核電經濟學成本分析
Nuclear Power Economics Cost Analysis Based on LCOE
摘要
透過核電廠五大發電成本要素（資本、維運、燃料、外部、系統）的發電均化成本（Levelized Cost of Electricity, LCOE）分析，我們發現核電成本與其他發電形式具有競爭力，除非是在可以直接取得低成本化石燃料的地點。在核電廠總發電成本中，燃料成本僅占很小部分，儘管資本成本高過煤電及遠高於氣電。但是，核電、煤電、氣電等大型電廠的系統成本比間歇性再生能源低得多，尤其是核電充分提供長期、高資本投資的獎勵效益，在短期價格信號驅動的解除管制市場中，挑戰綠色供電系統的多元性與安全性。本文評估核電經濟學成本的結果為，LCOE標竿值約9.9c/kWh，其中60%以上為資本成本，終端核廢料處理成本約20％，除役成本約占初始資本成本的9-15％。本文並結論出，在解除管制市場中，為了維持電網穩定，勢必增加系統成本，例如在完全自由化市場裡，甚至增設相當於供電需求的備用容量及儲能裝置，大幅增加發電成本，包括因應電力調度困難度、複雜度增加的營運成本。我們認為核電是全球大型基礎建設典範，超低成本和交付挑戰不容小覷。
並列摘要
After analyzing the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of nuclear power plants (i.e. capital, O&M, fuel, external, and systems), we found that the cost of nuclear power is competitive compared with other forms of power generation, unless where low-cost fossil fuels can be directly obtained. In nuclear power plant, fuel cost accounts for only a small part of the total power generation cost, although its capital cost is higher than coal-fired power plant and much higher than gas-fired power plant. However, the system cost of above traditional large power plants is much lower than intermittent renewable energy. In particular, nuclear power fully provides reward benefits for long-term, high-capital investment. In the deregulated market driven by short-term price signals, nuclear power challenges the diversity and safety of green power system. This article evaluates the economic costs of nuclear power, resulting in a LCOD benchmark value about 9.9 c/kWh, of which more than 60% are capital costs, about 20% is nuclear waste disposal cost, while decommissioning cost is about 9-15% of initial capital cost. It also concluded that in a deregulated market, in order to maintain the stability of grid, the system cost will inevitably increase. For example, installing additional margin capacity and storage device that are equivalent to power demand are even needed in a fully liberalized market, notably increasing the power generation costs, including the operating cost, caused by the difficulty and complexity of power dispatching systems. We believe that nuclear power is a paragon of global large-scale infrastructure, while its ultra-low cost and future challenges cannot be ignored.