- 期刊
氣候變遷下降雨量重現期距設計之探討－以中港溪為例
The Study Rainfall Return Period Design Under Climate Change-The Chung-Kang River as an Example
摘要
全球氣候變遷(Climate Change)造成水文事件極端化，聯合國氣候變遷小組(IPCC)預估：由於地球暖化現象，未來將面臨海水位上升、颱風暴雨強度增加、乾旱危機增加等衝擊，同時連帶影響水利建設之功能性與安全性。台灣近年颱風帶來的豪雨降水屢破目前設計標準的重現期距降雨量推估值，釀成嚴重災害，但目前台灣地區中央管河川保護標準慣例仍設定為50及100年重現期距之洪峰流量，是否合適，確實值得在進行河川水工構造物設計頻率年時做全面性之檢討。本研究以中港溪為例，使用水利署水文資訊網站中港溪歷年雨量測站資料，選定4處河川控制點，計算出歷年最大二日降雨量，經五種水文頻率分佈方法分析重現期距降雨量之影響。並選用對數皮爾遜三型分佈與民國71年治理規劃報告之結果比較。結果顯示中港溪流域整體重現期距降雨量呈現明顯增加的趨勢，期其結果可供未來中港溪水利工程規劃及設計之參考。目前中港溪保護標準，主流及其支流南港溪採100年之重現期距洪峰流量保護標準，其餘支流均採50年重現期距洪峰流量之保護標準，近年觀光經濟復甦、都市化程度亦隨之提升，為維護城鄉建設之永續經營及河川管理維護，建議其支流亦提高防洪保護標準至100年重現期距，以達到保護目的。
並列摘要
The Global Climate Change has caused extreme changes in the hydrological events. The United Nations Panel on Climate Change IPCC forecast: due to the phenomenon of global warming, human beings will encounter sea level rising, the strength of typhoons intensity and of storms, and impact of drought crisis. Besides, it has also influenced the function and safety of water conservancy construction. The precipitation of heavy rain typhoons have brought, in recent years, has repeatedly broken the current record of the return period rainfall observations, causing severe flooding, but the design return periods of peak flow for central managed rivers of Taiwan are still using 50 and 100year for standard, so a review of Taiwan's rivers flood control design return period rainfall is necessitated. This study take Chung-Kang River for example, use the hydrologic data of the hydrological information website Chung-Kang River rainfall station data of the Water Resources Agency selected 4 river control points to calculate the calendar year maximum daily rainfall, heavy five hydrological frequency distribution analysis now away from the impact of the rainfall. And select the number of Pearson -III distribution of the results in the 1982 Management and Planning Report. The results showed that Chung-Kang River basin as a whole return period rainfall significantly increasing trend of the results will be available for the water conservancy project planning and design in Chung-Kang River in the future. In present, the Chung-Kang River protection standards for main stream and its tributary( Nan-Kang Creek) is 100 years for the return period peak flow protection standards, and the other remain tributaries were collected for 50 years return period peak flow for protection standards. But in recent years, tourism economic recovery degree of urbanization are upgraded to maintain the sustainable management of the urban and rural construction and river management, maintenance, recommended its tributaries to improve flood protection standard to 100 years return period protection standard in order to achieve the purpose of protection.