- 期刊
Forecasting Taiwan Direct Investment in Mainland China Uing a Novel Grey Prediction Model Incorporating GM(1,N) with Residual Modification Model
摘要
Taiwan is always being an important international trading partner and source of FDI in Mainland China. Accurate forecasting Taiwan direct investment (TDI) in Mainland China will help the government to initiate incentive policy to attract TDI. To this end, a novel grey multivariable model combining GM(1,N) and residual modification model using GM(1,1) and Fourier series is designed in this paper. To demonstrate its efficacy, the proposed model is applied to a real case of China's OFDI. Then, China's TDI is predicted using the proposed model, and compared with different models. Eventually, the proposed model will be applied to predict future TDI in Mainland China from 2017 to 2021, and the results can provide a solid basis for formulating incentive policies and foreign direct investment plans.
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