台灣青年世代的政治認同（1995-2015）

Political Identity of Young Generation in Taiwan, 1995-2015

林宗弘(Lin Thung-Hong)

《香港社會科學學報》 49期 (2017/06) Pp. 27-65

摘要

自民主化以來，台灣的青年世代是否更支持台獨、反對統一，或支持民進黨？本文採用交叉分類隨機效應模型（Cross-Classified Random Effects Model，簡稱為CCREM）探討1995-2015年間台灣社會變遷調查（Taiwan Social Change Survey，簡稱為TSCS）所呈現的世代政治。研究發現：（1）青年世代收入明顯偏低，但無法證實影響其身分認同、統獨與政黨偏好；（2）青年世代確實有較強台灣認同且支持台獨；（3）年輕群體（當他們年輕時）較支持民主價值；（4）所得對政黨支持的世代差異影響最小，身分認同影響最大，民主價值居中。（5）青年世代未必較支持民進黨，因此在對政治不滿時，亦可能轉向「時代力量」等更激進的小黨。

關鍵字

世代 ； 世代政治 ； 台灣 ； 年齡 ； 時期

並列摘要

Does the younger generation support Taiwan independence over reunification, and would they therefore vote for the pan-green camp to address economic or phychological dissatisfaction in Taiwan? Earlier studies imply as much, but their empirical results are biased consequent to methodological flaws. In this study, we introduced the Cross-Classified Random Effects Model (CCREM) to estimate economic return, political attitudes, and identity politics among different groups. Our statistical results are more complex than the simplified argument of earlier studies. Said results indicate that claiming an association between economic inequality and the political attitudes of the youth is difficult. In contrast, national identity and democratic value may be the most important determinants of the generational cleavage of voting behavior in Taiwan. In addition, the national identity and democratic value of the young generation may not materialize as support for the pan-green camp. The young generation may be attracted by radical partisans who claim to be left wing and advocate for Taiwan independence.

並列關鍵字

Age ； Cohort ； Generational Politics ； Period ； Taiwan