影響總統施政滿意度因素之研究：2000-2012

Research on Factors Impacting Presidential Approval Ratings in Taiwan: 2000-2012

林修全(Hsiu-Chuan Lin)

指導教授 ： 陳明通

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.01665

摘要

總統施政滿意度是統治正當性的基礎，本研究主要是分析影響總統施政滿意度的因素，以及不同人選、不同黨籍的總統，民眾在評價總統施政滿意度的差異，與更換行政院長對總統施政滿意度所造成的影響。
本研究是採實證研究途徑，並利用次級資料研究法，範圍期間是從2000年到2012年，蒐集聯合報、中國時報與TVBS電視台發布的總統施政滿意度資料數據，並以「在職天數」、「政黨認同」、「事件衝擊」、「行政院長異動」與「經濟環境」因素，作為影響總統施政滿意度的解釋變數；其中，「經濟環境」又包括「經濟成長率」、「失業率」、「消費者物價指數年增率」、「痛苦指數」、「消費者信心指數」與「景氣燈號」等指標。
本研究透過複迴歸統計方式，先是分別找出適合三家媒體的總統施政滿意度變化之個別解釋模型，再進一步分析影響陳水扁第一任、陳水扁第二任、馬英九第一任的施政滿意度原因，最後比較陳水扁兩屆總統任期的差別，以及陳水扁與馬英九的異同。
研究結果發現，陳水扁在八年執政期間，施政滿意度明顯受到在職天數的影響，陳水扁上任後，雖然能享有蜜月期，但隨著在任時間愈長，施政滿意度愈低，但馬英九在這部分卻不顯著。
其次，除了陳水扁第一任外，包括陳水扁第二任、馬英九第一任，施政滿意度均明顯分別受到民進黨、國民黨政黨認同的影響；不僅如此，當總統施政滿意度陷入谷底時，仍然會有一群人始終對總統的施政表現給予正面評價，主要因為藍綠政黨認同之基本盤幫忙支撐。
經濟環境部分，陳水扁第一任的施政滿意度，主要受到經濟成長率的影響；馬英九第一任則是受到痛苦指數的影響。此外，失業率、消費者物價指數年增率的解釋力，反而不及由這兩項數據加總後所構成的痛苦指數。而除了客觀的經濟指標外，直接測量民意所呈現的消費者信心指數，這項主觀指標在影響總統施政滿意度時，同樣具有較佳的解釋力。
至於事件衝擊為最穩定的解釋變項，不因總統人選而出現差異，然而，當總統任期當中，若是發生太多事件，將會成為民眾評價總統施政滿意度的重要依據，經濟環境因素反而不具解釋力，像陳水扁第二任就是處於這個情況。
研究結果也顯示，總統在更換行政院長時，對於提高施政滿意度只具有短期效果，長期而言，並不會對總統施政滿意度造成作用。

關鍵字

施政滿意度 ； 正當性 ； 政黨認同 ； 行政院長 ； 總統

並列摘要

As approval ratings of a head of state forms the foundation of his or her legitimacy, the dissertation aims to give an analytical view on factors that impact the approval ratings of a president; how people form their views on performances of various presidents and presidents of different parties; and how the reshuffling of premier impacts presidential approval ratings.
By adopting empirical study and secondary research methodology, the this research attempts to analyze factors involved in presidential approval ratings, based on poll results published by two major newspapers - the United Daily News and China Times as well as Television Broadcasts Satellite (TVBS) network between 2000 and 2012. The explanatory variables include time in office, political party identification, impact of specific events, replacement of premiers as well as economic environment, which includes the benchmarks of economic growth rates, unemployment rates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rates, the Misery Index, the Consumer Confidence Index and monitoring indicators.
Calculating by multiple regressions, the analysis identifies appropriate explanatory models for the three media outlets followed by assessing the factors that affected the approval ratings during the first term and the second term of former president Chen Shui-bian and the first term of incumbent president Ma Ying-jeou. Another rating comparison is made between Chen’s two terms and t between Chen and Ma.
The study found that Chen’s approval ratings during his eight years in office was clearly affected by his time in office as his approval ratings decreased after a honeymoon period, a phenomenon not seen during Ma’s first term.
Party identification played an important role in approval ratings system as positive ratings from supporters provided cushion for a downfall in the poll for both President Chen and President Ma.
From the economical perspective, Chen’s approval ratings during his first term gained support from economic growth rates while Ma’s ratings suffered due to high misery index. The study also found that the subjective indicator of Consumer Confidence Index has offered a powerful explanation to the impact factors of presidential approval ratings, along with those objective factors with relations to economy.
Impact of specific events was found to be the most consistent explanatory variable regardless of who the president was. However, impact of negative events could undermine the effect of economic environment as the primary basis of the assessment of presidential performance, as it was clearly seen during Chen’s second term.
Finally, the replacement of premier only offered short-term positive impact to a better presidential approval ratings and did not affect the support rates in the long term.

並列關鍵字

approval ratings ； legitimacy ； party identification ； premier ； president

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