美國總統選舉對台灣股市報酬之影響：
以事件研究法分析

本文探討歷屆美國總統大選結果是否會對台灣股市報酬造成影響，以台灣股票市場之產業指數及市值排名前50的上市公司作為研究樣本，利用事件研究法(event study)進行實證分析。在事件期日之後，許多產業指數都具有顯著的平均異常報酬(AR)以及平均累積異常報酬率(CAR)。不論是AR以及CAR，民主黨總統當選後會比共和黨對於台灣股市傳遞更為正向的反應，認為民主黨當選有較佳的股市表現。美國總統政黨輪替後，對於台灣產業指數有較為正向的反應。發現美國總統大選結果對於許多台灣產業指數會造成衝擊，此外總統當選人之政黨傾向及政黨輪替後也會對於台股市場造成不同程度的影響。

關鍵字

股票價格；事件研究法；美國總統選舉

並列摘要

This thesis explores whether the results of U.S. presidential elections will affect Taiwan's stock market returns, use the industry index and the top 50 listed companies in the Taiwan stock market as the research sample, using the event study method to conduct empirical analysis. It finds that during the event period, many industry indexes have significant average abnormal returns (AR) and average cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). The Democratic president will be more positively reacted to the Taiwan stock market than the Republican. After the rotation of the U.S. presidential party, it has a more positive response to the Taiwan Industrial Index. The research contribution of this issue is to find that the results of the US presidential election will have a positive and negative impact on many of Taiwan’s industrial indexes. Also, the political parties of the president-elect and the party rotation will cause varying degrees of impact on the Taiwan stock market.