- 學位論文
Covid-19對觀光產業的影響--以牛耳渡假村為例
The Impact of Covid-19 on the Tourism Industry – Take New Art Resorts & SPA as an Example
摘要
本論文研究新冠疫情對渡假村公司的影響。首先針對六福開發股份有限公司、劍湖山世界股份有限公司及本文作者工作所在地「牛耳藝術渡假村」的營業收入進行比較，接著藉由事件研究法分析新冠疫情及政府政策對六福開發股份有限公司與劍湖山世界股份有限公司股票報酬率的影響。我們使用取自台灣證券交易所的資料，設定四個事件，分別為2020/1/30，邊境管制；2020/6/2，三倍券宣布發放；2021/5/15，三級警戒；2021/9/9，五倍券宣布發放。 不論是在2020年1月或是2021年5月台灣疫情爆發，劍湖山在營收上的反應都比六福來的大，牛耳在2021年6、7月園區部分暫停營業，甚至營收下跌了98.98%。 就事件研究法分析股票報酬率，邊境管制對六福影響較大，三級警戒對劍湖山的影響較大。可能由於疫情爆發初期北部較早受到影響，因此六福村渡假園區受到較大影響；三級警戒時影響範圍擴及中南部，限制民眾出入境、群聚、用餐等措施，劍湖山此時股價受到較大的影響。宣告發放三倍券和宣告發放五倍券的效果差異很大，很明顯前者的效果是比後者的效果顯著許多，這跟廠商紛紛提前開跑促銷活動有關，再加上消費者早已預期此刺激景氣的政策，所以政策的效果遞減。
並列摘要
This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on resort companies. First, using the operating income from New Era Art Resort &SPA where the author is working at, compare the operating income of Leofoo village Development Co., Ltd. and Janhusun Fancyworld Co., Ltd.. During the period of outbreaking of COV-19 epidemic in Taiwan, Janhusun Fancyworld’s response was always more sensitive than of Leofoo village did. New Era Art Resort was partially closed in June and July 2021, and the revenue drop about 98.98%. We also use the event study method to investigate the effect of government policies on these companies’ stock return . We use data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange to set up four events, namely 2020/1/30, Border Control; 2020/6/2, Triple Stimulus Vouchers announced; 2021/5/15, Level 3 Epidemic Alert; 2021 /9/9, Quintuple Stimulus Vouchers announced. The result of the event study shows that Border Control has a greater impact on Leofoo Village, and the Level 3 Epidemic Alert has a greater impact on Janhusun Fancyworld. The explanation may be that the northern part of Taiwan was affected earlier, so the Leofoo Village was affected more greatly; the impact scope expanded to the central and southern parts of the country during the level 3 Epidemic Alert, restricting people's gathering, dining and other measures, Janhusun Fancyworld's stock price at this time was affected more greatly. On the other hand, the effect of announcing the issuance of Triple Stimulus Vouchers and Quintuple Stimulus Vouchers are different. Obviously, the effect of the former is much more significant than that of the latter. This is related to the fact that manufacturers have started promotional activities in advance. The consumers have learned and forecasted this stimulus policy earlier is also the main drive of this phenomenon. Therefore, the effect of the policy was diminished.