股價型態學之研究

The Research of Stock Patternology

邱耀昌(CHIU-YAW CHANG)

指導教授 ： 張詠盛

國立臺中科技大學/商學院/企業管理系碩士班/碩士(2020年)

摘要

本研究之目的在依據過去市場上的資訊，包括各市上櫃公司之每月開盤價(元)、最高價(元)、最低價(元)、收盤價(元)、交易量(千元)、報酬率%，透過KD技術指標分析觀察，並歸納股價型態，以預測未來股票價格的趨勢及決定投資的策略。
為研究相關類股呈現股價型態技術分析，透過台灣經濟新報文化事業股份有限公司所發行的上市上櫃TEJ股價資料庫，擷取下載2017年9月至2019年9月10家上市上櫃10家公司之每月開盤價(元)、最高價(元)、最低價(元)、收盤價(元)、交易量(千元)、報酬率%，利用EXCEL程式功能表之插入→圖表→股票圖→開盤-高-低-收盤股價，匯出ＫD線的各種技術指標圖，再比對各股交易量、報酬率，透過KD線股價型態技術指標呈現10種股價型態，以對選擇的股票作預測趨勢分析，作為各股價型態操作策略。
從研究中可發現，股價上漲不必然成交量會放大，成交量多寡與股價上漲下跌未成必然關係。且K值與D值雖然朝向同一個趨勢發展，但K值波動會比D值大。所以當K值與D值交叉時，就會產生比較明確的買進或賣出的訊號。當KD指標的K值由下往上突破D值，建議可買進、做多；當KD指標的K值由上往下跌破D值時，建議可賣出、做空。又透過KD值可客觀判斷此支股票價格過高或過低，常使用的二種判斷指標：當KD值大於80時，為高檔超買訊號，股價要下跌了；當KD值小於20時，為低檔超賣訊號，股價要上漲了。

關鍵字

股價型態 ； KD線技術指標

並列摘要

The purpose of the research is in accordance with the information in the past market, including the monthly opening price (yuan), highest price (yuan), lowest price (yuan), closing price (yuan), transaction volume (thousand yuan), and return rate of each OTC company in each city.Using KD-line technical indicators to analyze,observe and indicate stock patterns,the result could predict future stock price trends through technical indicators and determine investment strategies.
In order to study the technical analysis of the stock price patterns of related stocks,the study used the listed TEJ stock price database issued by the Taiwan Economic Newspaper Cultural Co., Ltd., extract and download 10 listed companies from September 2017 to September 2019 The monthly opening price (Yuan), highest price (Yuan), lowest price (Yuan), closing price (Yuan), trading volume (thousand Yuan), return rate %.Using the insert of EXCEL program menu → chart → stock chart →Opening-high-low-closing stock price, exporting various technical indicator charts of KD line, and then comparing the trading volume and return rate of each stock, through the KD line stock price type technical indicators, 10 types of stock price patterns were presented.According to the selected stocks ,they are to be analyzed for forecast trends and used as operating strategies for each stock type.
It can be found from the research that the rise in stock prices does not necessarily increase the volume of transactions, and the volume of transactions is not necessarily related to the rise and fall of stock prices. Moreover；although the K value and the D value develop toward the same trend, the fluctuation of the K value will be greater than the D value. Therefore, when the K value and the D value are intersective, a clear signal of buying or selling will be generated. When the K value of the KD indicator breaks through the D value from bottom to top, it is recommended to buy and go long; when the K value of the KD indicator falls from the top to break the D value, it is recommended to sell and short. And through the KD value, the stock price can be objectively judged to be too high or too low. The two commonly used judgment indicators are when the KD value is greater than 80, it is a high-end overbought signal, and the stock price is going to fall. When the KD value is less than 20, it is a low-grade oversold signal and the stock price is going to rise.

並列關鍵字

Stock Patterns ； KD-line technical indicators

參考文獻

中文文獻：

1.林良炤(1997)。KD技術指標應用在台灣股市之實證研究，國立臺灣大學商學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台北市。

2.洪志豪(1999)。技術指標KD、MACD、RSI 與 WMS%R之操作績效實證，國立台灣大學國際企業研究所，未出版，台北市。

3.黃旭鋒(2004)。以技術分析法則與公司特性選股之投資績效，私立東海大學管理碩士學程在職進修專班碩士論文，未出版，台中市。

4.張景閔(2005)。技術分析的切入時點，國立成功大學會計學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台南市。