- 學位論文
低欲望社會指數的設計與國家發展的Granger因果關係檢定-以OECD會員國為例
The Design of the Low Desire Society Index and the Granger Causality Test of National Development-Taking OECD Member States as an Example
摘要
根據日本學者大前研一在2016年出版的《低欲望社會》一書中，提到日本社會目前正面臨「低欲望現象」的問題，即「社會長期的人口高齡化以及物價飛漲造成國民普遍不願結婚、不願買房、也不想找一份正式工作，以最低限度的品質生活」的現象。 但由於低欲望現象並無實際上的計算方式以及量化方法，因此本研究藉由World Bank提供的數據，並根據大前研一《低欲望社會》書中造成低欲望社會較明顯的指標，即結婚率、勞動參與率、通膨率、扶老比以及房價所得比做為低欲望社會現象之變數，開發出低欲望指數(Low Desire Index)。並且藉由低欲望指數以及人類發展指數(Human Development Index)來探討OECD各成員國的國家發展狀況是否對低欲望社會的形成有直接的關係。 為了取得更客觀且準確的研究結果，本研究將OECD成員國依照人類發展指數的高低劃分成前50%成員國以及後50%成員國，並與各個成員國的低欲望社會指數進行回歸分析。 本研究實證結果顯示，OECD前50%成員國的人類發展指數對低欲望指數呈現顯著正向關係，但低欲望指數卻對人類發展指數卻沒有明顯的影響。而後50%成員國則正好相反，兩者皆呈現互為因果的顯著負向關係，即國家發展的進步能使低欲望社會現象減輕。此一結果也證實了大前研一在《低欲望社會》書中所述論點「低欲望社會現象通常都出現在像日本一樣的高發展已開發國家當中。」
並列摘要
According to the book "Low Desire Society" published by Japanese scholar Kenichi Ohmae in 2016, it is mentioned that Japanese society is currently facing the problem of the "low desire phenomenon", that is, "the long-term aging of the society and the soaring prices have caused the general dissatisfaction of the people. The phenomenon of being unwilling to get married, unwilling to buy a house, and not wanting to find a formal job, living with a minimum quality of life.” However, since there is no actual calculation method and quantification method for the phenomenon of low desire, this study uses the data provided by the World Bank. According to the book "Low Desire Society" by Kenichi Ohmae, This study chooses the most apparent indicators of the low desire phenomenon, Wich include marriage rate, labor force participation rate, inflation rate, old-age support ratio, and housing price-income ratio as the variables of low-desire social phenomenon. And through the low desire index and the Human Development Index (HDI) to explore whether the national development status of the OECD member countries has a direct relationship with the formation of a low desire society. To obtain more objective and accurate research results, this study divides OECD member countries into the top 50% of member countries and the bottom 50% of member countries according to the human development index. It conducts regression analysis with the low desire social index of each member country. The empirical results of this study show that the human development index of the top 50% of OECD member countries has a significant positive relationship with the low desire index, but the low desire index has no significant effect on the human development index. The opposite is true for the last 50% of the member states, both of which show a significant negative relationship between cause and effect, that is, the progress of national development can reduce the phenomenon of a low-desire society. This result also confirms Kenichi Ohmae's argument in his book "Low Desire Society" that "the phenomenon of low desire society usually occurs in highly developed countries like Japan."