八卦推演預測股票指數漲跌-以上海證券交易所綜合股價指數、深圳證券交易所綜合股價指數為例

在長期以來中國命理與數術的緊密結合，此『思維結構』是目前民俗文化的特色現象，而在各種陰陽、五行、八卦等宇宙自然規律法則下，透過各式符號的象徵意思及推算，運用在股票市場作為選股模式文獻為數稀少，故本研究以中國傳統易經、八卦推演對股票市場漲跌進行探究，討論八卦推演能否預測股票指數漲跌。本研究選取1991年7月到2017年12月上海證券交易所綜合股價指數（SHA：000001）、深圳證券交易所綜合股價指數（SZ：399106）的日線開盤價、收盤價作為統計、研究資料，使用八卦推演的研究方法，得出預測準確率在53.086%-62.963%之間，研究顯示八卦推演確實可以預測股票指數漲跌，對投資人投資股票有相當意義。本研究提出兩點建議：後續研究可以進行狀態的分析，例如，在多頭、空頭與盤整狀態下，八卦出象與股票市場漲跌的關係是否有所差異，以及其預測能力是否有所差異。2、後續研究可以對其他國家的股票市場進行研究，也可對某一特定股票指數或者是個股進行研究。

關鍵字

易經；八卦推演；預測股市

並列摘要

For a long time, the thinking structure that combines the numerology with the numbers is a characteristic phenomenon in the current folk culture. However, in the moment only rarely literatures used the cosmic laws of nature (such as Yin and Yang, Theory of Five Elements and trigram) as the stock selection model to select stock through various symbolic meaning and projections in stock market. Therefore, this study explores the rise and fall of the stock market with I Ching and Chinese traditional trigram and discusses whether the trigram can predict the rise and fall of stock index. This study selects the daily opening price and closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SHA:000001) and the Shenzhen Composite Index (SZ:399106) from July 1991 to December 2017 as statistics and research data and uses the research method of Chinese trigram theory to analyze. The Forecast accuracy is 53.086%-62.963%.The results shows that Chinese trigram theory can indeed predict the rise and fall of stock index, which is quite meaningful for investors in investing stocks. This study proposes two suggestions: 1. The follow-up studies, it can be used to analyze the status. For example, in the long, short, and consolidation states, whether there is a difference in the relationship between trigram and stock market fluctuations and whether there is a difference in their prediction ability. 2. The follow-up studies can be conducted on the stock markets in other countries or on a specific stock index or stocks.