自阿根廷進口冷藏或冷凍牛肉之風險評估

世界貿易組織與國際畜疫會規範之量化風險分析，係以科學證據為依規的動物及其產品進出口風險評估，此為國際貿易諮商談判主流，各國無不奉為圭臬。本文即依此分析評估自阿根廷進口冷藏或冷凍牛肉而引進口蹄疫病毒之風險。分析始於口蹄疫危害之確認，評估內容包括風險分析樹狀圖之構建、擬出風險變數與風險數值及三種可能風險途徑，並以Monte Carlo模擬測試不同風險數值，算出最終風險。結果顯示，每年輸入110為單位牛肉時，平均風險為每2,336年發生一次輸入一單位含有口蹄疫病毒之牛肉。另有5 %之累積可能性為少於935年發生一次，及有95 %之累積可能性為大於24,450年才發生一次。故依此分析我們認為是“可忽略的風險”，但本文中所訂之假設條件改變時，整體風險亦會有所變化，且含口蹄疫病毒牛肉一旦輸入時，對我國整體衝擊程度仍屬嚴重。

關鍵字

風險分析；風險評估；模擬測試

並列摘要

Risk analysis, based on scientific evidence, is the universal rule for the member countries of the World Trade Organization in international trade of animals and animal products. Thus, a risk analysis example by assessing the risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus introduction into ROC through importation of chilled or frozen beef from Argentina is described. This begins with identification of the hazard-FMD, and lists 3 possible pathways that FMD virus contamination may be present in beef exported from Argentina. A risk scenario tree, risk events, risk variables and their risk values, a mathematical model, and Monte Carlo simulation are used. The results of the simulation indicate that on average every 2,336 year we would expect to import one FMDV contaminated animal unit. There is still a 5% chance of less than 935 years and accumulated 95% chance of more than 24,450 years of importation of a FMDV contaminated animal unit. A negligible risk is proposed based on the scientific assessment of supported data. However, a serious impact is recognized once FMD live virus in beef is imported.

並列關鍵字

Risk analysis ； Risk assessment ； Monte Carlo simulation

國際替代計量

自阿根廷進口冷藏或冷凍牛肉之風險評估

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