新十大建設方案對我國農業經濟的影響：多區域可計算一般均衡模型之應用

近年來我國農業政策議題多集中於探討加入世界貿易組織(WTO)後對農業相關部門之衝擊，但政府所主導的公共投資建設方案對農業之影響則鮮少被關注。此次政府所主導的「新十大建設計畫」雖然在短期內會有擴大內需之效果，但因計畫內容過度偏重公共工程與高科技產業，卻可能在長期造成產業的不均衡發展，甚至可能對我國農業部門產生負面影響。本研究將建立一個台灣多區域可計算的一般均衡模型(multiregional computable general equilibrium, CGE Model)，來模擬及分析新十大建設計畫對全國與各區域農業部門，以及其他相關產業所產生的衝擊。研究結果顯示，新十大建設方案對我國農業經濟之發展確實有相當程度的負面影響；雖然在短期情況下，農業部門的所得與就業量仍可能有微幅成長，但該計畫的長期效果則會造成農業部門之國民所得大幅下降、失業率增加與投資減少等現象。

關鍵字

新十大建設；農業經濟；多區域可計算一般均衡模型

並列摘要

The focus of agriculturl policy issues in recent years is mainly on Taiwan's accession to the WTO and its impacts on the agricultural sector. The influences of government-initaited public investment projects on the agricultural economy, however, are seldom investigated. The Ten New Construction Projects (TNCP) proposed by the DPP administration is an effort to stimulate Taiwan's economic growth. Although this may generate positive economic impacts in the short run, the over-emphasis of public expenditures on construction and high-tech industries risks the costs of unbalanced economic development in the long run. The agricultural sector may be negatively impacted as well. In this research, we constructed a Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium, CGE, Model for the Taiwain economy to study the impacts of implementing TNCP on Taiwan's regional agricultural industries. We found that TNCP will lead to a long-term decline in agricultural economy as indicated in the loss of gross regional product, employment, and investments, while the short-run results show a minor economic gain for agriculture.