我國大陸經貿政策的分析：論兩岸經貿互動對於台灣地區經濟發展之影響

An Analysis of Taiwan's Cross-Strait Ecnomic Policy: The Impacts of Taiwan-China Economic Interactions upon Taiwan's Economic Development

吳重禮(Chung-li Wu) ； 嚴淑芬(Shu-Fen Yen)

《中國行政評論》 10卷2期 (2001/03) Pp. 135-166

https://doi.org/10.6635/cpar.2001.10(2).05

摘要

邇來，兩岸經貿交流愈趨頻繁，我國民間企業前往大陸蔚為風潮，這種情形是否會對於台灣地區經濟發展產生負面影響，而政府究竟應否管制我國企業赴大陸投資，咸已成為眾所關切的議題。本文以1995年至1999年期間，我國國民生產毛額的影響因素為研討的核心，參酌相關理論，設定迴歸模型，進行實證分析。變數檢定及迴歸方程式的分析結果顯示，我國對大陸出口貿易順差與政府國內投資金額，對於國民生產毛額的變動具有顯著影響。本文推論，益形蓬勃的兩岸經貿交流，對於我國經濟發展而言，所帶來的正面效應大於負面影響，因此，一旦緊縮兩岸經貿往來，則我國總體經濟發展所面臨的衝擊可能較為顯著。當此之際，我國政府對於兩岸經貿政策的走向，應該扮演積極興利的角色，經由調整國內產業結構，以及改善投資環境，才能促進台灣地區經濟的穩定發展。

關鍵字

兩岸經貿 ； 國民生產毛額 ； 戒急用忍 ； 大膽西進

並列摘要

Facing its flourishing economic relationship with Mainland China since the late 1980s, the Taiwan government is in a dilemma of regulating the investments of Taiwanese business community in China or not. Another critical issue is whether the cross-Strait economic interactions bring about negative effects on Taiwan’s economic development overall. This study empirically examines the impacts of political and economic determinants on Taiwan’s gross national product (GNP) during the period of 1995-1999. By analyzing relevant data through regression models, we refer that both the value of Taiwan’s trade surplus with China and government domestic investments have a significant effect on Taiwan’s GNP) The results also reveal that the booming economic interactions between Taiwan and China are of benefit to Taiwan’s economy. Throughout this essay and in the conclusion, we argue that adjusting domestic industrial structure and improving Taiwan’s investment environment should be the best strategies to maintain Taiwan’s economic prosperity.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan-mainland economic interactions ； GNP ； "caution and self-restrain" ； "courageously go west"