衝突或不確定？論經濟相互依賴和臺灣選舉對兩岸互動之影響

Conflict or Uncertainty? The Effects of Economic Interdependence and an Election Cycle on Cross-Strait Relations

黎寶文(Pao-wen Li)

《遠景基金會季刊》 17卷1期 (2016/01) Pp. 73-125

摘要

經濟互賴和臺灣選舉周期如何影響兩岸關係？在理論面，此問題牽涉到「經貿和平論」與「選舉周期與軍事衝突相關性」等理論用於詮釋兩岸關係發展的適用性問題。在實務面，經貿依賴與選舉也是所有兩岸決策者無可迴避的重要因素。本文透過時間序列分析，針對1990-2012年間兩岸行為紀錄進行統計驗證。分析的結果顯示，兩岸經貿互賴程度的變化與臺灣總統選舉的逼近，僅影響兩岸行為的穩定程度，卻不一定改變兩岸行為的衝突與合作發展。

關鍵字

兩岸關係 ； 經貿和平 ； 選舉周期 ； 事件資料 ； 時間序列

並列摘要

How do economic interdependence and Taiwan's election cycle influence cross-Strait relations? From the theoretical aspect, this question involves the validity of commercial peace theory and the conflict-caused-by-election hypothesis in the case of cross-Strait relations. From an aspect of realpolitik, the trend of economic interdependence and the disturbance of Taiwan's elections are also two significant factors that all policy-makers in Taiwan and China have to consider when making their cost-and-benefit analysis. This paper aims to investigate the political effects of economic interdependence and Taiwan’s election cycle on the interaction between Taiwan and China in the context of time by using the GARCH model. The main finding is that the effects of economic interdependence and Taiwan's election mainly work on influencing the stability, rather negative-orpositive patterns, of Taiwan's and China’s behavior toward each other.

並列關鍵字

Cross-Strait Relations ； Commercial Peace ； Election Cycle ； Event Data ； Time Series

參考文獻

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