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臺北地區農業氣象環境與災害發生潛勢

Agrometeorological Environment and Disaster Occurring Potential in Taipei Area

摘要


分析臺北地區20世紀一百年期間,平均氣溫趨勢約增暖攝氏1.4度,增暖趨勢明顯且穩定。雨量趨勢也呈增加趨勢,惟經深入探討,發現臺北地區百年雨量增加趨勢可能只是統計時段的巧合,其增加趨勢不穩定,降雨日(大於或等於0.1毫米)則明顯減少。經定義降雨強度=年雨量/年雨日,亦呈增強趨勢。再分析各個日雨量區段的趨勢,在較小雨量區段(0.1-10毫米及10.1-20毫米)其佔全年雨量比率,在20世紀百年期間為減少趨勢;在較大雨量區段(80.1-130毫米),其佔全年雨量比率呈增加趨勢。在較少雨量區段減少27天,比全年降雨日減少的趨勢(21.3天)還多,所以降雨日明顯減少最主要的貢獻來自於較小雨量區段減少所致。在劇烈豪雨方面,結果顯示20世紀初和20世紀末發生劇烈豪雨的頻率差不多,20世紀末並沒有因為平均氣溫的增暖而有增加劇烈豪雨發生頻率的現象。展望21世紀,根據HadCM3在A2情境下的預測環流指數降尺度計算,臺北地區平均氣溫趨勢,於21世紀末將再增暖攝氏3.9度,冬季低溫日(小於等於10度)頻率呈減少趨勢,至本世紀末出現低溫日的機會消失。另一方面不降雨頻率呈增加趨勢,相當於降雨日持續減少,但發生豪雨頻率和雨量則無增減。

並列摘要


The mean temperature increasing tendency of Taipei area was about 1.4℃ in the 20(superscript th) century. The tendency was clear and steady. The trend of precipitation was also increasing. But, in fact the increasing tendency was a calculation error. The tendency of precipitation days was decreasing. The percentage of the lower precipitation range (0.1-10 mm) showed a decreasing trend, while the percentage of the higher precipitation range (80.1-130 mm) was an increasing fashion, indicating an intensified daily precipitation. When calculating the serious precipitation events, it was not significant in χ^2 test, indicating that there was no change in serious precipitation during the 20(superscript th) century. For the perspective of 21(superscript st) century, the mean temperature warming trend will continue, an increase trend is expected. The low temperature days (less than 10℃) will decrease in the last 20 years of the 21st century. The no-rain day frequency will increase but the serious precipitation events will similar to that of the 20(superscript th) century.

被引用紀錄


沈哲平(2007)。台北山坡地災損潛勢分析與歷史災害驗證〔碩士論文,國立臺北科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2007.00218

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