減災與氣候變遷調適在區域治理上之融合研究－以坡地災害為例

Study on the Integration of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation for Regional Governance-Taking the risk of sloping land disaster as an example

何謹余(Chin-Yu He) ； 童慶斌(Ching-Pin Tung) ； 王涴雅(Wan-Ya Wang)

《農業工程學報》 66卷2期 (2020/06) Pp. 12-25

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.202006_66(2).0002

摘要

近年來，由於全球氣候變遷，各地自然災害發生比例持續增加，因此，許多證據顯示氣候變遷調適（CCA）與災害風險降低（DRR）相關，仙台減災綱領更於2015年揭示CCA與DRR有重複的目標以及重疊的策略，更有研究建議兩者間應該融合。現今，國際上有許多相關研究正在進行融合或整合以解決此一問題，但是多數國家表示在CCA與DRR融合議題上均遇到重大困難，其主要原因為減災與氣候變遷調適係由兩個不同的行政架構所推動，就地方區域治理而言，發現有越來越多兩個領域重疊與存在多重治理的現象，兩者不僅在管理策略相互影響，更可能耗費行政資源。本文針對此一問題，從兩個領域的共同點「風險分析」出發，在區域治理的單一層級範疇內進行CCA與DRR的融合研究。減災與氣候變遷領域均涉及風險，但對風險的定義並不一致，為達到融合之目標，本研究透過相關文獻分析風險之定義與其因子，調查地方層級治理的相關實施策略與計畫，輔以專家問卷的方式，分析其對應降低風險因子的能力指標，同時著重理論與實務以發展融合DRR與CCA（DRCA）風險模板以評估氣候風險。並以坡地災害風險分析為例，先透過氣候風險模板分析風險因子之間的關聯與層級治理內部的相互關係，再研究風險因子與其對應能力之指標建構，未來風險的部分，則以現況風險與氣候影響係數C綜合評估計算，嘗試提出適合地方層級治理的DRCA融合模型。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 減災 ； 融合 ； 風險分析 ； 動態調適路徑

並列摘要

As the result of climate change, the proportion of natural disasters has increased in recent years. Many evidences indicate that climate change adaptation (CCA) is associated with disaster risk reduction (DRR). In 2015, the Sendai Disaster Reduction Program revealed that the goals and the strategies of CCA and DRR might be overlapped. Many studies also suggested that those two skills should be fused. Many international related researches are doing some integrations or fusions to solve this problem nowadays, but most countries presented that they had faced some significant difficulties when conducting the issues about fusing the CCA and the DRR. The main reason of this situation is that the disaster disk reduction and climate change adaptation are separately promoted by two different administrative structures.In term of the local regional level governance, more and more phenomena of overlapping strategies and multi-level governance between the two domains have been found which might not only effect management strategies mutually, but also cause the waste of the administrative resources. To respond this problem, this study would base on the common point ＂risk analysis＂ and focused on fusing CCA and DRR in one level of regional governance. Although both of those two fields mentioned to the risk, the definitions of risk were different. In oder to reach the goal of fusing, the present study analyzed the relevant literature to find out the definitions of the risk and its factors, examined the corresponding risk indicators to reduce the risk by expert questionnaire, developed the DRR & CCA (DRCA) risk template by considering the theory and practice at the same time and assessed the climate risk. Take slope disaster as an example. First, analysize the risk template to consider the relationship between the risk factors and the interrelationship in the multi-level governance. Secondly, research the risk factors and set up the corresponding capacity index. Thirdly, in the aspect of future risks, the current risk and climate impact coefficient C were comprehensively assessed. Lastly,try to propose a suitable fusion model for regional level of governance.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； Disaster risk reduction ； Fusion ； Risk analysis ； Dynamic adaptation pathway