運動博弈中賭盤與比賽得分之關係：以2017年美國職棒大聯盟為例

Correlation Between Odds in Sports Gambling and Game Score Results: Taking Major League Baseball Games in 2017 as an Example

林忠程(Jong-Cheng Lin) ； 陳膺成(Ying-Cheng Chen) ； 黃孆蔚(Ying-Wei Huang)

《大專體育》 145期 (2018/06) Pp. 30-38

https://doi.org/10.6162/SRR.201806_145.0004

摘要

隨著運動博弈產業的發展，投注者關注各項運動賽事的統計資料與相關資訊。本文旨在分析2017年美國職棒大聯盟開出的總得分盤與實際比賽得分的關聯性，以2017年美國職棒大聯盟例行賽各隊得分大小盤結果數據等文獻進行分析，結果發現開大分盤最多的球隊是紐約大都會，開小分盤最多的球隊是匹茲堡海盜。總得分盤讓大小分盤盡量趨近於五成的平衡狀態，以獲取5%之經營利潤，30支球隊中有12支球隊大小分差率達5%，球隊投手防禦率與球隊得分開盤也存在關聯性。結語指出運動博弈不僅是博弈也是「投資管理」，運動賽事的分析不該單憑個人感覺與喜好，或聽閱坊間專家與媒體分析的迷思進行投注，而應全面觀察各項數據及趨勢，做一番有系統的分析與預測，尋找最有利的投注條件，做一正確的判斷抉擇，營造獲利的法則。

關鍵字

大分盤 ； 小分盤 ； 投手防禦率 ； 投資管理

並列摘要

As the sports gambling industry has evolved, bettors have begun to focus on statistical data analyses and related information. This study aims to analyze the correlation between odds in sports gambling and the actual score results by organizing the data of each team's odds in Major League Baseball during the 2017 regular season. The results reveal that bookmakers set the most total overs on the New York Mets, and the most total unders on the Pittsburgh Pirates. In order to protect their margin and generate a 5% operating profit, most bookmakers attempt to achieve a ＂balanced book＂ with a fifty-fifty overall ratio between winners and losers as often as possible. Twelve of the thirty teams obtained a total differential rate of 5%. There is also a correlation found between each team's earned run average and the betting odds. The results indicate that sports gambling is not only a game of chance but also an example of investment management. While analyzing sport games, bettors should not rely on personal perspectives, preferences, advice from other professional bettors or media analyses. They should observe and analyze the overall data and trends comprehensively and systematically to make predictions, identify the most profitable betting conditions and make accurate determinations. These are the key elements needed to systematically earn profits.

並列關鍵字

total over ； total under ； earned run average ； investment management

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