- 期刊
- OpenAccess
Policy Analysis on Spatial Spillover Effects of Serious Crime-An Application of Spatial Durbin Model
重罪空間外部性效應之政策分析－空間杜賓模型應用
摘要
There were significant declines in serious crime which is associated inversely with increases in gross domestic product in Taiwan over the period from 2005 to 2015. Misdemeanor policing derived from the Broken-Windows hypothesis suggested that along with the increase in arrest for minor offense, and then the increased social control in evil motivation would discourage the anti-social behaviour of individuals. This paper applies Spatial Durbin Model to estimate the serious crime affected by deterrence of anti-social events with application of spatial econometric techniques in Taiwan. This paper finds remarkable decline in serious criminal activity is attributable to improved economic condition and minor offense control. However, both economic incentive and social control by misdemeanor policing and their spatial lag terms are important in explaining this decline. Spatial Durbin model is the best one to fit this explanation for serious crime reduction in Taiwan. Additionally, spatial spillover effect from economic incentives and minor offense deterrence is a significant factor to consider when the public policy is formulated to crime reduction.
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