孫文南院2019年學術論壇紀實－夏季、秋季論壇

Documentary of the 2019 Academic Forum of Sun Wen Nan Yuan

許綿延(Hsu Mian-Yan) ； 汪明生(Wang Ming-Sheng)

《公共事務評論》 18卷1期 (2019/11) Pp. 13-14+16-34

摘要

孫文南院聯合華夏創意文化交流協會在2019年舉辦了兩場次的學術論壇，其目的在盱衡當前兩岸分離分治70年的史實，探討當前兩岸關係的發展，從近期中美貿易戰、一國兩制台灣方案、香港反送中的暴動到台灣總統大選的紛紛擾擾，一連串情勢的發展讓台灣的民眾對台灣的未來感到憂心忡忡，為了讓台灣的民眾能夠瞭解這個全球矚目的議題，通過專家的分析後對這個議題有正確的認識。2018年6月15日中美貿易戰打響，美國宣稱以增加關稅懲罰中國偷竊美國知會財產權和商業機密，將分三波執行中國對美國出口產品之高額課稅。從智慧財產權議題而言，意指中國產業的起飛是剽竊美國的商業機密，美國要求中國做出體制上的改變，更進一步的要求要做出可執行的承諾。而中國認為中美貿易衝突，無法在短期內解決衝突，因此不確定感增加，造成國際貿易的減緩；並且對於竊取的指責是過於嚴重，如果美國的商業機密這麼容易被竊取，那就表示美國的產業保密是有漏洞的。根據資料統計資料，中美貿易衝突開始迄2019年5月，臺灣產業的訂單減少了43%，砍單的只有1%。由於臺灣外銷產品90%是在大陸生產，而且大陸出口前20名的大產商，臺灣就占了10家，都是電子通訊產商，當然受到美國關稅增加的影響。新冷戰時代來臨，由於美中的對抗，造成中俄升級為全面性的戰略夥伴，中國繼續經貿努力，循著「一帶一路」向歐陸發展，爾後可能形成美中為首的雙體制發展。就兩岸關係而言，從2016年以來兩岸關係陷入冷凍期，台灣的經濟的衰退是事實，加諸受到中美貿易大戰的影響，無異雪上加霜。吾人試以「南南合作與兩岸融合」做為新的解決方案的探索，也給南臺灣同胞提示新的省思，從兩岸大局關鍵地區的南台灣出發，建構兩岸和平共榮的願景。

關鍵字

一帶一路 ； 一國兩制 ； 南南合作

並列摘要

Sun Wen Nan Yuan and Huaxia Creative Culture Exchange Association held two academic forums in 2019. The purpose is to study the current history of cross-strait separation and jurisdiction for 70 years and explore the current development of cross-strait relations, from the recent Sino-US trade war,＂One country Two systems- Taiwan alternation＂, Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill (ELAB) Movement, and the violent disturbances in the presidential election in Taiwan, the development of a series of situations has made the people of Taiwan feel worried about the future of Taiwan. In order to let the people of Taiwan understand the topic of global attention, through expert analysis, this topic has a correct understanding. On June 15, 2018, the Sino-US trade war started. The United States declared that it would impose a high tariff on China to steal US property rights and trade secrets. It would implement a high tax on Chinese exports to the United States in three waves. From the perspective of intellectual property rights, it means that the take-off of Chinese industry is to plagiarize US trade secrets. The United States requires China to make institutional changes, and further demands that an executable commitment be made. China believes that the Sino-US trade conflict cannot resolve in a short period of time, so the sense of uncertainty increases, causing the slowdown of international trade; and the accusation of stealing is too serious. If the US trade secret is so easily stolen, it means the United States. Industry secrecy is flawed. According to statistics, the Sino-US trade conflict began in May 2019, when orders for Taiwanese industries fell by 43%, and only 1% of orders were cut. Since 90% of Taiwan's export products are produced on the mainland, and Taiwan's top 20 major producers, Taiwan accounted for 10, all of which are electronic communication manufacturers, of course, affected by the increase in US tariffs. The advent of the new Cold War era, due to the confrontation between the United States and China, has caused China and Russia to upgrade to a comprehensive strategic partnership. China will continue its economic and trade efforts and follow the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ development to the European continent. Later, it may form a dual system development led by the United States and China. As far as cross-strait relations are concerned, cross-strait relations have been frozen since 2016, and Taiwan's economic recession is a fact. Adding to the influence of the Sino-US trade war is no different. The trial of ＂South-South cooperation and cross-strait integration＂ as a new solution has also prompted the South Taiwan compatriots to remind them of new thinking and to build a vision of cross-strait peace and common prosperity from the southern Taiwan region in the key areas of the two sides of the strait.

並列關鍵字

One Belt, One Road ； One Country Two Systems ； South-South Cooperation