The Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait: An Analysis from Security Dilemma

從安全困境看台海安全情勢

林慶銘(Ching-Ming Lin) ； 周志杰(Chih-Chieh Chou) ； 況正吉(Cheng-Chi Kuang)

《語文與國際研究》 13期 (2015/06) Pp. 105-129

https://doi.org/10.3966/181147172015060013006

摘要

由於中國國力快速成長，「中國威脅論」自20世紀末開始成為重要議題，不但成為學界爭論焦點，也影響美國的外交政策，尤其是美國的台海政策。藉由安全困境理論，本論文首先分析與評估中國崛起的爭論上所體現在兩個問題：中國經濟與軍事實力增長到底有多快？世界上，特別是美國與台灣，應該如何回應這一正在崛起的大國。其次，安全困境的嚴重性當被廣義地衡量，有些如民族主義的因素亦應納入考量。基於這樣的關注，即可清楚看到台海安全困境動態有其獨立的複雜性。1990年代以來台灣海峽一再出現的激烈對抗看來是安全困境的典型案例，他闡明了為何有些人會擔心中國實力的增長，以及為何基於這一擔心而做出的回應將導致危險的制衡行為並增加軍事衝突的可能性。最後，本論文針對台海安全困境的緩解，提出相關的建議。

關鍵字

中國威脅 ； 安全困境 ； 民族主義

並列摘要

Due to the rapid growth of China's national power, the so- called ＂China Threat＂ has become an important issue since the late 20^(th) century. It involves academic debates not only over power issues, but also over issues on American diplomatic policy, especially toward the Taiwan Strait. Employing the theory of security dilemma, this paper first analyzes and evaluates the rise of China and addresses two questions: ＂How fast are China's economic and military capabilities increasing?＂ and ＂How should the world, especially the United States and Taiwan, respond to this emerging great power?＂ Secondly, it is believed that the security dilemma should be measured more broadly and some factors, such as nationalism, need to be taken into account as well. It is clear that the dynamics of the security dilemma in the Taiwan Strait are uniquely complex. The interests rivalry that has reemerged in the Taiwan Strait since the 1990s seems to be a classic example of the security dilemma, illustrating why some are worried that the growth of Chinese military power and the reactions to it would result in dangerous balancing behavior and would increase the chances of military conflict. Finally, this paper offers some suggestions to the further relaxation of the security dilemma across the Taiwan Strait.

並列關鍵字

China Threat ； security dilemma ； nationalism

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