2016 年的台灣總統大選,再次出現政黨輪替,由民進黨級的蔡英文當選新任中華民國總統,卻也開啟了兩岸之間的「冷和低盪期」。本文嘗試從賽局理論(Game Theory)分析蔡英文上台後的兩岸互動關係。本文研究指出,蔡英文面對及處理的是突破「九二共識」的囚徒困境賽局(Prisoner's Dilemma),而北京當局對及處理的卻是堅持「一中原則」的懦夫遊戲賽局(Chicken Game)。正因為雙方經營的賽局不同,導致過去一年多來形同陌路、各說各話的平行發展。至於如何尋求交集與突破,本文則認為,決定兩岸究竟是否要從這個囚徒困境賽局中逐步轉變結構成為保證賽局,還是要繼續堅持可能對撞的「一中原則」懦夫賽局,最終其實都還是取決於賽局優勢方的北京。
In 2016, Taiwan's presidential election reappeared political party rotation. The DPP's Tsai Ying-Wen was elected new president of the Republic of China, but also opened the "cold and low swing period" between the two sides. This article attempts to analyze the cross-strait interaction after Tsai Ying-wen taking office from the Game Theory. This article pointed out that Tsai's face and dealing with the prisoner's dilemma, which is the breakthrough of the "1992 Consensus", while the Beijing authorities have dealt with the "One-China principle" Chicken Game. It is the different game management that results the two sides in the past years like strangers, and saying their own words in the parallel development .As for how to seek intersection and breakthrough ,this article argues that it is up to the question of whether or not the cross-strait will gradually change the structure from the prisoner's dilemma to the guaranteed tournament, or to continue to stick to the "One-China principle" ,which may be colliding, are still ultimately dependent on the advantages of the game side of Beijing.